Week 5's NFL Sunday Betting Ticket

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 5, 2014 1:59 PM GMT

Jason Lake smashed the NFL odds in Week 4, and he can’t wait to get the ball rolling for Week 5 – not when Kyle Orton and his magnificent neckbeard are about to save the entire Buffalo Bills franchise. 

Jason’s Record After Week 4: 12-14 ATS, 5-4-1 Totals

Profit: minus-5.6 units

We’ve still got it. Then again, we never lost it. Our Week 3 NFL picks put us pretty deep into the red here at the ranch, but we made almost all of it back in Week 4. I believe the poker kids call it variance. Most of the time, our weekly football picks are going to come out somewhere around even, but there will be the occasional wild moodswings. As in math, so in life. Let’s see what we’ve got in store for Week 5 – looks like road dog is on the menu.
 

Sunday: Buffalo vs. Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
O Yeah! Kyle Orton is back, baby! If we had a patron saint of quarterbacks, it would be he. Orton (79.9 career passer rating) is just too good for the NFL betting market to appreciate. Everyone makes fun of him, but why? Because he’s a farmboy from Iowa? Because he’s been photographed in the company of women? Possibly while high?

Laugh at this: Orton has thrown 83 career touchdowns to just 59 interceptions. Yes, that most recent interception may have kept the Dallas Cowboys out of the 2013 playoffs, but they beat the NFL odds against Philadelphia (–7.5 away) that night. Orton is an upgrade over EJ Manuel (78.5 passer rating), and the Bills already have excellent defense and special teams. Light that blood up, holmes.

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Bills +7 at William Hill
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Sunday: St. Louis vs. Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Since we did so well with Green Bay in Week 4, here’s another pick based on our feature NFL betting trend for Week 5. St. Louis (1-2 SU and ATS) is coming off a bye; Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 11-7 ATS lifetime in this situation, and 2-0 ATS for his new employers. Philadelphia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) lost in San Francisco last week and dropped the cash for the second straight game.

We’re a bit nervous about Austin Davis (93.1 passer rating) being anointed the starter in St. Louis, but you have to be impressed with the third-stringer’s performance over the past two games. He’s been just as good as Sam Bradford was last year (90.9 passer rating). The Eagles, meanwhile, are struggling again now that their offensive line is back in sick bay.

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Rams +6.5 (+105) at SIA
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Sunday: Atlanta vs. N.Y. Giants (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
This was a tough choice – we also like Kansas City and Chicago, but we’re going to roll with the G-Men (2-2 SU and ATS) at home. They shot up from No. 28 to No. 11 on the DVOA charts after shellacking Washington last Thursday – that’s two in a row for the Giants and their revamped offense. It’s like half a bye week for New York, too. The Falcons (2-2 SU and ATS) went to Minneapolis last Sunday and lost to the Vikings; both their wins were at the Georgia Dome.

We really, really wanted to support Atlanta this year, but that offensive line took an early hit when LT Sam Baker (knee) was lost for the season, and now the floodgates have opened. Center Joe Hawley (knee) is gone. RT Lamar Holmes (foot) is gone. When LG Justin Blalock (back) was forced out of last week’s game, the Falcons had to put TE Levine Toilolo at right tackle. Sweet potato pie, that’s not going to cut it against the No. 5-ranked Big Blue defense.

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Giants –4 (–101) at Marathon

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