Week 5 NFL Picks of the Day

Darin Zank

Sunday, October 5, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 5, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Another Sunday, another 13 NFL to games to choose from. After a 4-2 Week 4 here's what we've come up with for our Week 5 NFL free picks.

Lions -7/44 over Bills
Detroit, the early leaders in the NFC North, hosts seemingly rudderless Buffalo.

The Lions under new head coach Jim Caldwell are making a case as one of the best teams in the NFC. Two weeks ago they held Green Bay to seven points, and last week they won at the Jets 24-17. Detroit held the ball for almost 35 minutes against New York, and now ranks second in the league in time-of-possession at just under 35 minutes per game. The Lions also lead the league in total defense, and rank sixth against the run, holding foes to just 81 yards per game on the ground.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has called upon Kyle Orton to jump-start its offense, which ranks 27th overall. Good luck with that.

Detroit WR Calvin Johnson is still hampered by a sore ankle, but the Lions can minimize that situation by spreading the ball around, like last week, when seven different players caught at least two balls.

We expect at least a couple of TD passes from Detroit QB Matt Stafford, and two picks from Orton. If we get those, the Lions should win and cover this game.

Free NFL Pick: Detroit -6.5 at Pinnacle

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Steelers -7/46.5 over Jaguars
Pittsburgh, coming off that shocking loss at home against Tampa Bay, looks to recover against winless Jacksonville.

The Steelers are 2-2 SU this season, but should be 3-1, had they not blown last week's game against the Bucs. Pittsburgh could have closed that game out, but couldn't make a first down with Tampa out of time outs. The Steelers then gave up a long pass play, and the game-winning score with just seven seconds to go.

Through four games Pittsburgh ranks fifth in both total offense and in rushing, at 144 yards per game. That after ranking 27th at 86 yards per game last year.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, is 0-4 both SU and ATS, after last week's loss at San Diego. The Jags rank 31st in total offense, 30th in rushing, dead last in total defense and 30th in time-of-possession. Those are not numbers conducive to winning games and/or covering spreads in the NFL. They're also starting a rookie at quarterback in Blake Bortles.

After blowing that lead last week the Steelers might be out for blood this week.

Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh -6 at 5Dimes

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49ers -6/44.5 over Chiefs
San Francisco, coming off that come-from-behind victory over Philadelphia last week, welcomes Kansas City and Alex Smith into Levi's Stadium.

Frisco had to rally from a 21-10 deficit last week to take a 26-21 lead, then stopped the Eagles on two downs from the one-yard line to secure the victory. But that game was strange; the Niners outgained Philly 407-213, held the Eagles to just 22 yards rushing and won the time-of-possession battle by a lopsided 42-18 margin. But San Francisco gave up touchdowns on a blocked punt, an interception return and a punt return.

On the season the Niners rank seventh in rushing and second in both total defense and against the run.

KC, meanwhile, just won a big emotional home game Monday night against New England; now the Chiefs have to get on a plane on the short week and get up for a game against a quality opponent. The “letdown” factor is just to heavy to ignore here – the play is the fade on KC for our NFL Picks.

Free NFL Pick: San Francisco -5 at Pinnacle

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Chargers -6.5/43.5 over Jets
San Diego, off to a 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS start, hosts 1-3 New York, which hasn't covered a spread yet this season.

The Chargers rank ninth in total defense this season, but only 17th in total offense, in part because they rank 31st in rushing at less than 70 yards per game. QB Philip Rivers has been awesome, completing 70 percent of his throws so far, but we have to believe that lack of a running game will catch up to San Diego sooner or later.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank second in the league in rushing at 151 yards per game, and lead the league in run defense, allowing just 63 yards per game. Usually, those are two very good numbers, when it comes to covering pointspreads.

Yes, New York is a little banged up, and QB Geno Smith is still going through a learning curve, but the styles of play in this game give the Jets an edge. If they can move the ball on the ground, keep it away from Rivers, and avoid the mistakes, they'll have a chance to pull the upset.

Free NFL Pick: Jets +7 at Bovada

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