Week 5 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 8:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 8:05 PM UTC

Had our first negative week of the season against the NFL odds for our sports picks, but are still a solid 7-5 overall. This week we have one false favorite and two underdogs to ponder. Let’s give a go with this trio of choices.

Kansas City Impressive Play Continues
The Chiefs ran roughshod on New England, making them look more like Jacksonville than the Patriots. What has changed since the Game 1 loss to Tennessee is the diversification of the offense. Andy Reid has opened up the playbook and given quarterback Alex Smith by formation the choice of the right play to run or check out of based on what the defense presents and go through read progressions to connect with the proper receiver.

With Smith is harmony with his pass-catchers, NFL handicappers are aware of the combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis and the havoc they create both running and catching the pigskin.

The Kansas City defense has also become more disruptive and moved into the Top 10 is points allowed (19.7) and total yards allowed (338). 

San Francisco should have destroyed Philadelphia last week on the scoreboard like they did in the stats (+194 yards edge), but we continue to see their play off kilter, proving the Chiefs a chance to beat the NFL odds.

NFL Underdog with Bite: Kansas City

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Philly is Floundering
The Eagles gave San Francisco a tussle on the scoreboard, but not really on the field. A review of Philadelphia’s season finds them at 3-1 and 2-2 ATS. In the first quarter of the season, Chip Kelly’s crew has yet to play four solid quarters of football in any contest, thanks to a defense which is 28th in total yards and allowing 26 points per game.

After a few strong second half showings, the offense line is in tatters, which curtails the effectiveness of a normally elusive LeSean McCoy, and with little running game; defenses are and will continue to come after Nick Foles with abandon.

Three weeks ago the Eagles would have been at least a nine-point favorite, but with injuries and ineffectiveness, sportsbooks have Philly down to -7 against the betting odds with their 4-14 ATS record at The Linc.

NFL False Favorite: Philadelphia

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Bettors Backing Arizona at a Mile High
If you have any working knowledge of the Arizona Cardinals franchise, you know for years it has been among the worst run for decades. However, since owner Bill Bidwell has given control of the franchise to his son Michael, the prospects of Arizona have improved and now the front office and coaching staff have real NFL people with a vision for success.

Carson Palmer or Drew Stanton might not be on most teams short list for quarterbacks, but place them in a offense they can succeed, give them the weapons to choose from and rebuild the offensive line and coach Bruce Arians has something to work with and use his inventive and creative mind.

The Arizona Cardinals finished 6th in total defense and points conceded last season. When DT Darnell Dockett was lost for the season as the anchor, locals assumed the Redbirds defense was finished. But GM Steve Keim went to work to find adequate replacements and to this point have even better numbers.

When making your NFL picks keep in mind fthat ootball bettors also like what they see and while everyone respects Denver, they were lowered from -8.5 to -7 against Arizona and the Cardinals have the complete defense to keep this close.

NFL Underdog with Bite: Arizona

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