Week 5 Free NFL Picks: Best SU, ATS & Total Wagers Across the Board

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 10, 2015 3:53 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015 3:53 PM UTC

We look at some of the best bets to place in week 5 NFL betting in each category, the SU win, against the spread and in total betting. Find out which those are in this column.


Best SU Bet: Ravens Over Browns
We shine the light on this game in straight up betting markets simply because of the overwhelming head-to-head edge the Ravens have over the Browns. Although the pair are 1-3 SU and tied for last spot in the AFC North, the Ravens are dialled into this matchup, which suggests they are a smart NFL pick to improve to 2-4 SU at the expense of the Browns. The Ravens boast a commanding 9-1 SU edge in the last ten games over divisional foes the Browns, which includes a perfect 5-0 SU record in their last five meetings at home against Cleveland. Consider the Browns are 1-8 SU in their last 9 overall games and 0-5 SU on the road as well, it’s almost a sure NFL pick or as close to one we can get according to the stats. Naturally, it’s not the best value (risk vs. reward) in NFL betting markets with the Ravens matched upwards of the -250 price-point mark. Sometimes it’s better to be prudent rather than reckless. In other words, a bet that has reasonable probability of paying out can be the value play over a risky bet that might promise better return on your investment but has a slim shot of actually cashing.

NFL SU Pick: Ravens -280 at Westgate.

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Best ATS Bet: Broncos to Cover at Raiders’ Expense
Once again, we single out this clash simply because the NFL odds present a startling departure from previous NFL betting trends. In season’s past, the Broncos were installed as double-digit favourites on the spread – be it at home or on the road – in the 14-to-16-point range. Now, Broncos’ offense may not be dominating in any key statistical category this season, but we are still talking about Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Who are undefeated this season (4-0 SU) and boast a 3-1 ATS record that includes a 7-point winning margin on average. Under what circumstance do the 2-2 SU Raiders warrant consideration on the NFL odds board as the mere 4.5-point home underdogs? That represents more than ten points shaved off of what was deemed their market value last season. Granted they’ve made improvements, but those have only yielded two wins and two losses in the first four games of the season. Wins coming at the expense of struggling Ravens at home and the hapless Browns on the road. Just last week they lost to the Bears for heaven’s sake. They were blown off the field by the Bengals in week 1, which is probably the more representative matchup for their coming matchup with the Broncos.  Take the Broncos to light up in Oakland on your NFL picks and cover handily the low 4.5-point spread.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline

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Best Total Bet: Titans and Bills to Go OVER
The total on the game between the Bills and Titans in Tennessee is trading on a rather low 42-points across sports betting platforms. We’re leaning towards the OVER in this game for several reasons a) Titans are 3-0 in O/U betting this season, b) they are averaging 29.67 points per game so far this season and conceding 25.67 points per game, c) Bills are 2-2 O/U averaging 27.5-points per game and conceding 23 points per game. By the numbers, we’re adding it all up to an OVER NFL pick in this game.

NFL Picks: OVER 42 -110 at 5Dimes

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