Week 4 NFL Predictions - Cleveland Browns vs Washington Redskins

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 28, 2016 11:53 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 28, 2016 11:53 PM UTC

Our sports handicapper has gone an outstanding 8-2 ATS over the past 2 weeks. Join him in the winners circle by reading his Cleveland - Washington betting preview which concludes with a free NFL pick.


Cleveland Browns vs Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins will be seeking their second consecutive win on Sunday when they host the Cleveland Browns. The opening kickoff at Fed Ex Field in Landover, Maryland is slated for 1:00 PM ET. These teams last met in 2012, and Washington came away with a convincing 38-21 road win.


Browns Rushing Attack vs. Redskins Run Defense
Despite their 0-3 start, Cleveland has enjoyed surprising success running the football. The Browns have averaged a robust 145 yards rushing per game and are doing so at an impressive clip of 5.9 yards per attempt.

Washington’s most glaring defensive weakness over the past 2 seasons has been their inability to stop opposing rushing attacks. This year hasn’t been much different. The Redskins defense is allowing 123 yards rushing per game, and opponents are running for a lofty 4.9 yards per attempt.

Sometimes a team’s best defense is a productive offensive running game and one that produces a significant time of possession advantage. I look for Cleveland to have plenty of success running the football on Sunday, and in turn, limit the number of offensive possessions for Washington. That’s certainly a winning ATS formula for a sizable underdog. The strategy is to shorten the game and give them a most optimum opportunity to stay close throughout, and possibly pull off an upset.


Pertinent Team Trends
You may be surprised to know, since 2014, the Cleveland Browns are a highly profitable 7-2 ATS as a road underdog of 4.5 to 11.5. They also upset their opponent on 2 of those occasions.

Conversely, the Washington Redskins have gone a dismal 5-17 ATS during their previous 22 games as a home favorite and lost 11 of those contests straight up. During that exact time period, if they were a home favorite against a team with a losing record, Washington fell to 2-15 ATS and lost 10 of those 17 games outright.

I very seldom put much stock in team trends when making my NFL picks. If I indeed consider doing so, it must be a recent team trend that makes reasonable sense. In this particular instance, there are practical trends which apply to both teams. Even more appealing in that regard is the sizable point spread on this contest.


NFL Betting Angle
Current (9/27) NFL betting odds at Bovada has the Redskins as a 10.0-point favorite. Washington is coming off a 29-27 road win this past Sunday over their NFC East rival the New York Giants. The win improved Washington’s record to 1-2. The combination of this numerical data sets up an extremely successful betting angle, and it weighs heavily when making my NFL week 4 predictions.

Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 (Browns), versus a team coming off a win by 3 points or less against a division opponent, and they (Redskins) possess a losing record, resulted in those underdogs going 20-1 ATS (95.2%) since 1993.


Free NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns +10.0
Best Line Offeredat Bovada is presently offering 100% cash bonuses on deposits of up to $250.

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