Week 4 NFL Player Props

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, September 27, 2014 5:52 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 27, 2014 5:52 PM UTC

With six NFL teams not playing this week, it makes searching for good NFL odds value even harder, but fortunately I’ve found 3 good prop bets. 

All of these player props are from bet365 Sportsbook.


Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders

Lamar Miller O/U 79.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Miller had a huge game in Week 3 rushing only 15 times for more than 100 yards. This week the Dolphins have to travel across the pond to play the Raiders in London, England, but the Raiders’ rushing defense hasn’t played well in the United States, so I doubt it shows up in the U.K. At only 79 ½ rushing yards from bet365, the value is absolutely there to bet the over with Miller here. Knowshon Moreno won’t play in this game, so Miller’s usage should be really high. Daniel Thomas poses no threat to Miller’s job security in this game, and if Miller doesn’t have 20 carries in this game, I’ll be very surprised. Even though the chalk is a little high on the over, add it to your NFL Picks. Plus, there is even more value on this play if my prediction on my next prop comes true as well.

My Free NFL Props Pick: Over 79.5 rushing yards (-130)


Ryan Tannehill O/U 235.5 Passing Yards
Staying in the same game, another reason why I think Miller will run the ball a lot here is because Ryan Tannehill has been pretty stinky through three weeks. His yards per attempt average is hovering around five for the season, which is really bad, and even though he’s throw four touchdowns to two picks, he is giving the Dolphins absolutely nothing down the field. If he continues to struggle, the Dolphins are just going to shift to the run more, which means Tannehill is not going to get enough pass attempts to have more than 235 passing yards. He had 241 passing yards in his best game this season, but it took him 49 pass attempts to get there. With the Raiders allowing almost 160 rushing yards per game, the Dolphins will hide Tannehill all game and try to beat the Raiders on the ground. Take the under and add it to your NFL Picks.

My Free NFL Props Pick: Under 235.5 passing yards (-130)


New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions

Jeremy Kerley O/U 46.5 Receiving Yards
Much like Miller taking advantage of an increase in carries due to injury, the Jets are dealing with some injuries of their own on offense. While their running back stable is seemingly healthy, their best receiver and main offseason acquisition is banged up. The most recent news on Eric Decker is that he looks like he’ll play, however Rex Ryan admitted yesterday that he thinks Decker will be limited. Enter Jeremy Kerley, who has some of the best NFL Odds on the bet365 prop card. At only 46 ½ receiving yards, there is no way you should not be adding the over to your NFL Picks. Last week Kerley had 11 targets, seven catches and 81 yards, and if he doesn’t get close to that this week it means that the Jets run the ball 50 times. I doubt that happens, and I doubt Kerley gets less than 10 targets this week. With Decker hobbled, all reports are pointing to Kerley, and even though there is once again some chalk on the over at -130, the NFL Odds are still through the roof with value. Run; don’t walk to take the 'over.'

My Free NFL Props Pick: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-130)

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