Week 4 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 25, 2014 4:59 PM GMT

Week 4 was once again a successful one, and now facing the 25-percent mark of the season, it’s time to start making some real money. Even with the bye weeks starting, there are still several valuable NFL Odds this week.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee’s offense has yet to click this season under Jake Locker, but on the road against the Colts might be the chance he needs. The Colts are beatable through the air, and going up against Andrew Luck will force Locker and the Titans to throw the ball. However I think this game might be a bit closer than some are projecting, and because the line is at +7 ½ right now, Tennessee looks like a solid bet to cover. Their defense is strong enough to limit the Colts’ offense, especially Luck through the air. I could easily see either an upset or one possession game in Indianapolis. It’s a bit of a risk considering how well the Colts have been playing, but the half point gives room for value. So back the Tennessee Titans with your Week 4 NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Titans +7 ½

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Panthers vs. Ravens
This game is probably one of my favorites for value this week, because the NFL odds are way off in my eyes. While the spread of -3 or -3 ½ in favor of Baltimore is fine, the total of only 40 points at Bookmaker and BetDSI is a steal of a value for the over. These two defenses aren’t as good as we originally thought, but the total from the sportsbooks has not caught on. The over is now 5-2 for the Ravens following a SU win, and for the Panthers, the over is 12-4 in their last 16 games as a road underdog between +3 ½ and +10. Carolina didn’t have a chance to stay in the game against the Steelers this past week because of special teams issues, but still their defense was not as fierce as Weeks 1 or 2. Baltimore is also beatable through the air, giving up the 6th most passing yards per game this season through three games. I could easily see this game becoming a shoot out of sorts, and the total of 40 or 41 going way over.

NFL Pick: OVER 40

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Dolphins vs. Raiders
Much like my first free pick on the Titans, this play is a lot more of a gut play than it is based on a science so to speak. However I really like the Raiders taking points at home this week. Young, Derek Carr will likely play better back in Oakland, and going up against the Dolphins shouldn’t be as tough as going up against the Patriots’ defense a week ago. Miami is only 6-24 ATS in their last 30 games of being a favorite of -3 ½ to -10, and dating back to last season they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Miami’s defense should give a big enough window to the Raiders to cover +4 at home. While they haven’t been too great as a road or home dog recently, the Raiders have enough on both sides of the ball to cover.

NFL Pick: Raiders +4 

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