Week 4 NFL Picks: To Wager or be Weary of the Sharps Bet?

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, September 28, 2014 3:23 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 28, 2014 3:23 PM UTC

It’s time to lock in any final NFL Odds wagers this week. We have already gone over where we think the public will be this week, so now we look at where the sharps might be.

Lions vs. Jets
The Lions are still only -2 favorites on the road for this game, and it looks as if the sharps are all over the Lions in today’s NFL odds. The spread has moved up some from the beginning of the week, however that doesn’t seem to be bothering anyone. Even though the amount of bets made on this game so far seems to be split pretty evenly, nearly 70% of the money being wagered on this game is on the Lions. While that doesn’t tell us too much, the average amount wagered on the game is very telling. The average wager on the Lions is $355 where the average amount on the Jets is less than $200. I would not be surprised if the Lions take over this game rather easily considering that Calvin Johnson is confirmed playing today. The Jets’ secondary will give up a ton, and I think the sharps are thinking the same thing.

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Packers vs. Bears
Even though the Packers haven’t been that great so far this season, a lot of people are predicting their coming-out party this week against the Bears. Even though they are on the road, the Bears’ defense is so banged up that the NFL odds have the Packers as road favorites. On top of that, a ton of money has been coming in on the Packers, which is just one of the reasons this line has been going up. Nearly 93% of the money already wagered on this game is going on the Packers, and the average NFL pick on Green Bay is almost ten times higher than on the Bears. This doesn’t mean too much because it’s a small sample size, however it is somewhat telling. I thought the Bears would have a little more value this week, but according to these numbers, I may just lay off of this game entirely.

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Jaguars vs. Chargers
While I definitely don’t agree with the money being wagered on this game so far, the Jags are averaging nearly double the money being wagered on the Chargers this week. This could be one of the reasons why the NFL odds have dropped almost two full points since the line opened, and even though I won’t be touching it, a lot of people seem to believe that this could be the week of the Jaguars covering their lofty NFL odds. The Chargers’ defense is still good but they are dealing with multiple injuries on offense right now. Jacksonville’s defense is not that bad, and with Blake Bortles getting the reps this week, the upside of the Jags is significantly higher that it’s been in the weeks prior. This info makes me weary of the Chargers for a free NFL pick on Week 4.

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