Week 4 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 9:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 9:36 PM UTC

I’m told by the SportsBookReview.com staff this article and video has been a hit with readers and viewers making NFL picks. I am glad to hear this because I love beating the sportsbooks betting odds.

Last week just missed a 3-0 week with Denver falling in OT catching five points. That still leaves us at 6-3 for the season, thus, let’s delve into this week’s NFL false favorites and top dogs!


San Diego Playing Great, but Ready for Let Down
Think about what the San Diego Chargers have been through in three weeks. They had a laborious opener at Arizona to start the season on a Monday night and lost a tight battle 18-17 as a field goal road underdog. Just six days later they had to face the Super Bowl champions Seattle and they gave a fantastic performance in winning 30-17.

The large majority of NFL handicappers and those putting together sports picks took San Diego from a slight road favorite to underdogs, figuring it was too taxing to get up for an early East Coast start against what was perceived a hot Buffalo bunch.

However, SportsBookReview readers were told right here last week the Chargers had the better team and won the game outright.

That is three weeks of grinding football. Now San Diego finally has their first “normal” week of playing a home game on a Sunday and takes on a Jacksonville team that has yet to come close to winning and has been outscored 119 to 27 in their last 10 quarters of game action.

The Bolts are not false favorites in the traditional sense, just in interest level and fail to cover.

NFL False Favorite: San Diego

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Santa Clara Crew Overrated
The San Francisco 49ers are not the first NFL team to actually play in a different city other than how they are listed, heck, three NFL teams actually play in different states let alone the city they go by, but thought I would give them a shot like their opponents have.

San Francisco started last year 1-2 and both losses were blowouts, thus an argument can be made they could be 3-0 with a few breaks. Yet, this year looks and feels different on several levels.

It starts with the lack of discipline, having 36 penalties in three games (most in the NFL), which suggests on the surface maybe the 49ers players really are tuning out the Jim Harbaugh and the coaches.

Next we find the Niners defense is a year older and missing pieces from the past two squads and they rank dead last in the league in third down stops. Finally, Harbaugh’s offense has gone colder than those buffalo wings in the back of the refrigerator under 10 other frozen food choices in the second half, with no touchdowns and one field goal in three games and San Fran outscored 52-3.

While it is debatable if Philadelphia is really that strong of a 3-0 team, in the final two quarters, they have outscored opposing teams 74-24 and at this point believe they can overcome any deficit.

Maybe San Francisco brings their A-Game for 60 minutes and covers the five points, but the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-2 ATS when visiting and I’ll play against these false favorites for my NFL picks.

NFL False Favorite: San Francisco

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Kansas City Eyes the Monday Night Upset
After a miserable training camp and opener versus Tennessee, the NFL odds were lining up for a long season with Kansas City. The Chiefs started to find confidence at Denver and lost 24-17 as 13-point underdogs, outgaining the Broncos by 55 yards.

With Jamaal Charles out, Andy Reid opened up the playbook at Miami to include more pieces and Kansas City won going away 34-15.

New England is 2-1, and while the argument can be made they Oakland is not going to bring out the best in the Patriots, the play of the offensive line is a real concern, with Tom Brady unable to go through progressions and the running game averaging a mere 3.5 yards a carry.

If the Chiefs use a similar offensive game plan and are able to pressure Brady like others have with their defense tied for fourth in sacks, Kansas City has a legit chance to cover or possibly upset New England under the Monday night lights.

NFL Underdog with Bite: Kansas City

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