Week 4 NFL Picks Based Off Week 3 Betting Trends

Nikki Adams

Monday, September 22, 2014 8:45 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 22, 2014 8:45 PM UTC

 Lets look at some of last week's trends and decide how they could prove to be helpful when breaking down Week 4's opening odds.

Top ATS Performers
Going into week 2, seven teams were a perfect 2-0 ATS: Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Philadelphia and San Diego. After Sunday’s round of NFL action, only two sides managed to extend their successful record against the spread – Cincinnati and San Diego.

Cincinnati (3-0 SU and ATS) beat the hapless Titans 33-7 at home, laying the points as the 6.5-point favourites rather easily. San Diego Chargers (2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS) covered as the 2.5-point dogs when they handed the Bills their first defeat on the season, 22-10 in Buffalo. It’s worth noting, San Diego have been the underdogs against the spread in all three games this season, yet coming up trumps each and every time.

Only Cleveland Browns have been nearly as successful as the San Diego Chargers against the spread, as they are 2-0-1 after three games in which they were the underdogs. Arizona Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0-0 as underdogs against the spread, including week 3 covers at the expense of the Niners and Dolphins, respectively.

Others to pay attention to against the spread include Oakland Raiders, who are 2-1-0 ATS as the underdogs this season and who pulled off the biggest underdog cover last week in a 16-9 defeat to the Patriots as the 14-point pups.


ATS Losers
Hobnobbing alongside the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 0-3 ATS teams after three weeks are the...shockingly...Denver Broncos – twice failing as the favourites as well as the 4.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds to the Seattle Seahawks last week. Although Denver (2-1 SU) claimed a moral victory over the Seahawks at Century-Link Field, storming back from 20-3 down in the fourth quarter to draw level 20-20 with just seconds left on the clock. Unfortunately, Peyton Manning lost the coin toss. Seattle got the ball. Scored a touchdown and won the game outright 26-20 without Manning getting a turn on the field (them are the rules: touchdown wins OT).  Unlike Jaguars and Bucs that have lost the plot, the Denver Broncos have been near misses against the spread either way.


Top SU Performers
Going into week 3, seven teams were undefeated. At the close of Sunday’s round of action that number was shaved down to just three teams: Arizona, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. While Cincinnati have enjoyed the biggest margins of victories –scoring 80 points and conceding just 33 points over three games, Philadelphia Eagles have established themselves as the come-back-from-behind Kings. Arizona Cardinals meanwhile are a revelation, leading the NFC West with a perfect mark, ahead of both Seattle (2-1) and San Francisco (1-2).


SU Winners and Losers in Week 3
Getting into the win column for the first time this season were the New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants. The Saints banked as the 9.5-point favourites over Minnesota Vikings with a 20-9 victory while the money was spot on the Giants, who came through as the 1-point favourites in a convincing 30-17 victory over the Texans. Kansas City Chiefs romped to a 34-15 win in Miami, picking up their first win on the season and first cover. Finally, the Colts disembowelled the Jaguars 44-17 to pick up their first win on the season.

Previously unbeaten Texans, Panthers and Bills dropped to their first defeats on the season, while the Packers’ road woes continued with a second road defeat on the season – 19-7 to the Lions. The Niners were overwhelmed by the Cardinals, marking their second straight loss. The real losers are the Raiders, Jaguars and Buccaneers, all of which are still searching for their first win of the season.


Totals Betting
In over-under betting, the former took a nominal 8-7 edge to close the gap overall 21-26 after three weeks. The Falcons accounted for the biggest margin of victory when they beat the Bucs 56-14 while the highest total in week 3 was served up by the Eagles and Redskins in a high-octane affair that ended 37-34 to the Eagles, all while set to the tune of 50.0 in total betting. Finally, Patriots playing down to their opposition in a 16-9 win over the Raiders was nowhere near the 46.5 total set. 

When setting up your Week 4 NFL Picks, rememember to place your bets at a trustworthy online sportsbook.

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