Week 4 NFL Odds Offer Bettors Two Strong Dogs

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 8:55 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 8:55 PM UTC

As we head towards NFL week 4 action, let’s sift through the early lines in search of value NFL picks you should lock up before lines move drastically.

New England Patriots -3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs, +3.5
Opening Line: 4-points
New England Patriots (2-1, 1-1 away) are showing some concerning signs. Mainly, an apathetic passing offense that ranks 27th in the league with just 196.3 yards per game, which is way below Tom Brady’s lofty standards. Patriots are after a dubious 16-9 win over Oakland Raiders, failing to lay the points as the 14.5-point chalk. (Patriots are 1-2 ATS this season).

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 0-1 home) have recovered from their opening debacle against the Tennessee Titans at Arrowhead Stadium with a rousing performance against the Broncos (covering as the 13-point underdogs) and picking up their first win on the season against the Miami Dolphins (Chiefs are 2-1 ATS). Chiefs are 26th in passing offense with just 197.7 yards per game and they are averaging 20.3 points per game, just a smidgen less than the Patriots with 22.0 points per game.

NFL Betting Analysis: The NFL odds opened at 4-points, but it’s steadily coming down – now at 3.5-points (Tuesday), merely a half-point away from a field goal. It’s a ways to Monday and the line is sure to move more, so if you’re looking to back the Chiefs in this game, we think it’s worth piling onto their odds now before they whittle down to a field goal. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be a tough nut to crack. The Chiefs have home advantage, which they’ll look to bank on as they search for their first home win. Patriots are first opposing the pass in the league with 168.7 yards per game. What’s more, they’ve allowed just 16 points in their last two games. But Alex Smith is a much better quarterback than Matt Cassel or Derek Carr – he can do more damage with his arm than both of those guys could – and he can keep this game close. A better quarterback than the Patriots have faced before, plus the points is never a bad move on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +3.5

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Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 at San Francisco -5.5
Opening Line: 4.5-points

NFL bettors that have closely followed San Francisco games in recent weeks have to be scratching their heads, wondering how on earth the Niners are favoured by 5.5-points at the expense of the high-flying Eagles (3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS). On paper, the Niners look good. Games aren’t won on paper, but on the field. And right now the Eagles are winning and the Niners aren’t. Based on current form and absent offense, there aren’t many teams the Niners deserve to be considered almost six-points better than against the spread. This has all to do with perception rather than reality.

The Niners are after squandering leads in their last two games; including last week’s loss to divisional rivals Arizona Cardinals, during which they produced ZERO offense in the second half. Granted the Niners are at home, but to be considered as 5.5-points better does seem rich. So taking the points with a hot team like the Eagles has to be the savvy NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Eagles +5.5

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