Week 4 NFL Odds: Early ATS Value Found in 6 Divisional Matchups

Nikki Adams

Monday, September 28, 2015 7:43 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 28, 2015 7:43 PM UTC

We look at early NFL odds and lines for week 4 in this column, analyzing where they opened on the NFL odds board and spotting any early movements that might have occurred.

Week 4 NFL betting Report
Week 4 marks the first bye week of the season with the Patriots and Titans sitting out. We have 15 matchups to look at with our NFL picks, six of which are divisional matchups. Arguably, the AFC North clash between the Ravens and Steelers practically leaps off the page for several reasons a) Ravens are 0-3 SU for the first time in 20-years and b) we know it’s going to be the Michael Vick show on Thursday Night Football. [Insert dramatic shiver].

Divisional Matchups To Spot in Week 4

Ravens vs. Steelers
Opening Line: PIT +2.0 home underdogs
The last five meetings between the Ravens and Steelers consistently featured a 2-to-3-point line with the host team to the good. With news of Roethlisberger’s MCL injury that NFL betting outlook turned on its head with the Ravens emerging as the 2-point road faves at early doors. Since opening so, they’ve been bet up to 2.5-to-3 points depending on your sportsbook of choice. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings with the Ravens, but Roethlisberger’s loss is huge obviously. In fact, some online sportsbooks were ready to make the Steelers 6-to-7-point faves in this divisional clash, until Big Ben’s injury. Steelers with Michael Vick running the offense clearly don’t instil much confidence amongst bookmakers. Although the Ravens are without a win yet, opinion is split down the middle about their play. Are they as bad as their straight-up record suggest or are they simply winless on the season.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837005, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Jets vs. Dolphins
Opening Line: EVEN
Since opening on a pick’em, the NFL odds for this game has been bouncing around from sportsbook to sportsbook. Some serve up the Jets as the nominal 1-point road favourites (5Dimes) while others have moved them as high as 2-point road favourites to a high of 2-points (BetOnline). This is partly down to the Jets having a 2-1 SU record compared to the Dolphins’ 1-2 SU record highlighted by a two-game losing streak. As well, it also comes down to the fact that the road team has won this matchup in six straight meetings.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837006, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Panthers vs. Bucs
Opening Line: TB +3 home underdogs
The Buccaneers went 0-8 SU at home last season and that run of form extends to a 0-9 SU record with a loss at home to the Titans in week 1 NFL betting. It’s no surprise they are the road underdogs in what should be a straightforward win for Cam Newton and his 3-0 SU Panthers.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837050, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Jaguars vs. Colts
Opening Line: IND -8.5 home faves
Since avoiding the dreaded 0-3 SU start to the season behind a come-from-behind win over the Titans in week 3 NFL betting, bookies open the Colts as the 8.5-point faves at home to the Jaguars. That line has increased up to 9-points at many sportsbooks while others have gone up to a high of 10-points (5Dimes) already. Without sounding churlish, the line movement in this game overrates the Colts. Granted they beat the Titans but only just in a 35-33 win. Something isn’t right with this year’s Colts team and Luck still isn’t playing his best. As such, it’s best to tread carefully with this point spread. Another thing to consider is the fact that the Jaguars probably aren’t as bad as the Patriots made out in the 51-17 beat down.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837051, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Eagles vs. Redskins
Opening Line:
WAS +3 home underdogs
The Washington Redskins got served by the Giants in Thursday Night Football betting, slipping to a 1-2 SU start on the season. The Redskins were thoroughly outplayed and outmuscled through the first three quarters and held to just two field goals. The seams on the game came undone in a highly entertaining fourth quarter, which featured four touchdowns, three of which came 35 seconds apart. Tale told, the Redskins lost 31-24. Eagles, meanwhile, finally cracked the win column with a 24-17 win. They head into week 4’s clash with the Redskins as the 3-point road favourites. So far, the Eagles have failed twice as the favourites to come through for NFL bettors (week 1 and 2). In week 3, they opened as the road underdogs but closed as the 2.5-point faves. Will they make it two in a row on the road in this NFC East showdown?

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837049, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Rams vs. Cardinals
Opening Line:
ARI -6 home faves
The Arizona Cardinals opened as the 6-point home faves on the NFL odds board, only to swell up to 6.5-points at most sportsbooks and up to 7-points at 5Dimes. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals are a whopping 3-0 SU and ATS this season with a whopping 25.7-point margin of victory. In three games, they’ve scored 126 points and conceded just 49-points. Last week, they decimated the Niners 47-7. When NFL bettors think of the Cardinals, they think well-balanced on both sides of the ball. Mainly, though, they tout the defense. How about this offense so far? Is Carson Palmer getting the respect he deserves with this 6-7-point NFL betting line? Palmer is tied with Brady on 9TDs for the season, but he has 2 INT while Brady has ZERO and just 1 sack to Brady’s 6. Since masterminding the upset in week 1 NFL betting over the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams have regressed. They’ve scored just 16 points in the last two games, 6 of which came in an ugly 12-6 loss to the Steelers in week 3 NFL betting. If the offense continues to struggle, this could be another lopsided NFC West showdown in Arizona in as many weeks. Niners are still reeling.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837056, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Notable NFL Lines and Movements in Week 4
The Raiders are riding a two-game winning streak which has them going into week 4’s clash with the winless Chicago Bears as the road faves, opening on a 1-point spread but moving up to 2.5-points at some sportsbooks.

Dallas Cowboys are installed as the absurd 7-point road underdogs ahead of week 4’s clash with the hapless Saints, winless after three rounds. Why the Saints are the 7-point home faves when they are coming off a loss to the Panthers as the 10-point road underdogs in week 3 NFL betting is shocking. Not to mention, they lost to the Bucs in week 2 at home as the whopping 9.5-point faves or thereabouts, depending on your choice sportsbook. The line is currently OTB as bookmakers wait on the status of Drew Brees. The starting quarterback sat out the loss in Carolina with a shoulder injury. If this comes down to a sexy matchup between Brandon Weeden and Luke McCown, the NFL betting line is sure to shift dramatically.

comment here