Week 4 Largest Betting Totals & NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, September 27, 2014 3:48 PM GMT

Not a great beginning on my largest totals picks of weekly NFL games, but nonetheless, here is a look at the four games with the highest totals in Week 4, with NFL odds courtesy of WagerWeb.

In last week's NFL Picks, I missed on 'under' in Packers-Lions, Redskins-Eagles and 'over' in Vikings-Saints. I did hit on Broncos-Seahawks 'under' 48.5 points thanks to a unique OT format.

 

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys (53.5)
The Saints are probably going to be involved in the largest totals for a majority of the season and probably always at home. This one is at AT&T Stadium and obviously the books expect something similar to last year. The Saints beat Dallas 49-17 and had an NFL-record 40 first downs along with a franchise-record 625 yards of offense. The Cowboys' putrid defense, and it was putrid in 2013, couldn't stop Drew Brees as he was 34 of 41 for 392 yards and four touchdowns. Two things are different now: the Saints don't look quite as good offensively or the Cowboys as bad on defense. New Orleans' point total has gone down every week and it managed just 20 in its home opener last week vs. Minnesota. I wouldn't call the Cowboys defense good yet, but it has been at least decent at times. Dallas is also helping out that unit by running the ball more (and well) and thus helping the defense rest. 

Free NFL Pick: 'Under.'

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers (50.5)
The Eagles are probably going to be involved in the largest totals for a majority of the season as well. They haven't scored less than 30 yet and are No. 2 in the NFL in points. Nick Foles is atop the NFL passing yardage list. It should be noted that Philly has faced three pretty weak defenses in the Jaguars, Colts and Redskins. San Francisco surprisingly is just an average defense thus far, but remember it is playing without star linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman. The Niners know they can't get into a shootout here so I expect a very conservative offensive game plan to keep Foles and Co. off the field. If this total reaches the 50s, the Niners are likely in trouble. And at 1-2, they have to win. 

Free NFL Pick: 'Under.'

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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (50)
The Packers burned me on the 'over' last week as I totally expected a shootout at Detroit but it finished 19-7 in favor of the Lions. Something is clearly off with the Green Bay offense right now. It didn't look good in the opener or last Sunday and only looked good for about a half in the Week 2 rally against the Jets. Blame the offensive line if you will, but Eddie Lacy looks nothing like the 2013 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Aaron Rodgers has been very average in two of three games -- both on the road. The Bears were supposed to have perhaps their best offensive season ever but have yet to top 28 points. Chicago is worse running the ball than Green Bay is. Chicago has played three good defenses, the past two on the road. Will a gimpy Brandon Marshall play Sunday? Because neither team can run, I expect a lot of throwing, and am willing to play a sports pick on this. 

Free NFL Pick: 'Over.'

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (47.5)
This total surprises me a bit. I would expect it to be a few points lower because the Vikings are giving rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater his first career start. Rookies generally struggle. And Bridgewater won't have either very good tight end Kyle Rudolph or star running back Adrian Peterson. The Atlanta defense has been pretty solid. You know the Falcons will dare Bridgewater to beat them because they don't fear the Minnesota ground game. Is he ready to do that? I don't see it. Perhaps the sportsbooks expect enough points from the Falcons, who lead the NFL in scoring off a 56-point game, to cover. However, the Vikings defense has played well and held the Saints to 20 in the Superdome last week. If this were in the Georgia Dome I might lean 'under.' But it's outdoors at the University of Minnesota. That hurts the Falcons' offense a bit like it would any dome team built to play indoors. 

Free NFL Pick: 'Under' at a sportsbook like Pinnacle

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