Week 4 Consensus Report: Are the Giants a Sharp or Square NFL Pick This Week?

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 3, 2015 9:58 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 9:58 PM GMT

The New York Giants have many of the traits that sharp bettors love, but the Buffalo Bills appear to be their NFL pick for Sunday's game against the G-Men. Or do they?

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 3: 13-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 7-9 Total

Thank goodness for the consensus reports. There might not always be agreement about which betting strategies are correct when you make your NFL picks, but we can use these surveys to track where the majority of sharps are putting their money. Then we can feel more confident when our picks match with theirs. We can even choose to make the same bets by default.

In theory. Sometimes, the numbers we see in our reports don't quite match our expectations. It could be “bad” data; maybe we just ended up looking at a slice of the betting market that doesn't accurately represent the larger view. Or maybe there's something else going on that should send off some alarm bells. This week, the bells might be ringing over Ralph Wilson Stadium, where the Buffalo Bills host the New York Giants Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

 

1000 Mona Lisas
You might recall our award-melting article from early on in Week 4, where we recommended the Giants as +6.5 road dogs. We also figured you should wait until later in the week before making that bet. Well, things didn't quite unfold the way we'd hoped. The sharps jumped on that line like a fat ladybug on an aphid, driving the Giants as low as +5 on our NFL odds board.

Except that's not what our consensus reports show. Yes, 55 percent of bettors were on the G-Men heading into the weekend, but our expanded report has nearly 60 percent of the money landing on Buffalo, including four $1000+ bets on the Bills compared to just two on Big Blue. The average bet size on Buffalo: $110. On New York: $61. Well, isn't that lovely.

 

Empire Games
A quick tour of my colleagues on the Interwebs shows plenty of sharp love for the Giants. Underdogs in general are expected to have the edge this week after the books got hammered in Week 3, and the Giants (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) might be undervalued after their clock-management follies from the first two weeks. Also, the Bills won't have RG John Miller (groin), or WR Sammy Watkins (calf), or RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring), among others.

So why the confusion? As it turns out, the public hasn't been hammering Buffalo the way I'd envisioned. The buzz on the street says recreational bettors are torn between the Bills and the Giants in this game, which would help bring down the average bet size on New York while boosting Buffalo's. There may be fewer sharps on the Bills, but their larger bets will show up more on our reports – especially those $1000+ bets, which can skew the market up real good. We're still glad we waited for Miller's status to be confirmed, though. Numbers are always up for interpretation. Missing offensive linemen? They're gold, pure gold.

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