Week 4 ATS Picks for Monday Night's Patriots vs. Chiefs

Jason Lake

Friday, September 26, 2014 3:30 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 26, 2014 3:30 PM UTC

You won’t find much argument over whether the Patriots are a better football team than the Chiefs. It’s the NFL betting market that makes the Chiefs worth a gander this Monday night.

Jason Lake’s record after Week 3: 6-13 ATS, 3-3-1 Totals
Profit: minus-13.6 units
It’s tough being No. 2. As we go to press, the New England Patriots are no longer the most “public” team in NFL betting; that honor goes to the New Orleans Saints. It had to happen sometime. Just like Madonna before him, Tom Brady’s star has gradually lost its luster, while Drew Brees has taken over the charts. These things happen. After all, it’s been nearly a decade since Brady and the Patriots won the Super Bowl.

Brady’s still got some moves, though. He’ll lead the Patriots into Arrowhead Stadium for their Monday Night Football matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with the Kansas City Chiefs, who earned a few fans of their own after winning 11 games last year at 9-7 ATS. As we reported earlier this week, Kansas City was a 3.5-point home dog at the open. There’s been a little bit of back-and-forth on the Week 4 NFL odds, with the Chiefs pulling in a steady 60 percent consensus while also staring down some Bets of Unusual Size on the Patriots. Kansas City was widely available at +3 (+105) at press time.


The Waterboy
We’ve been wringing our hands with glee at the thought of fading the Patriots, and thus far, they’ve delivered as planned, losing to the Miami Dolphins (+3.5 at home) in their season opener and failing to cover the giant 14-point spread last week against the visiting Oakland Raiders. Brady doesn’t have very many quality receivers at his disposal, the offensive line isn’t what it used to be, and lo and behold, Brady’s numbers have dipped even lower than they were at the beginning of his NFL journey:

Brady 2001: 63.9 percent completions, 6.9 yards per attempt, 86.5 passer rating

Brady 2014: 58.8 percent completions, 5.5 yards per attempt, 82.9 passer rating

Those numbers have “game manager” written all over them. Here are the next three names on the QB rating list after Brady: Joe Flacco (82.3), Alex Smith (81.5), and Chad Henne (80.7). Flacco has a Super Bowl ring to ward off the haters, but Smith is treated like he belongs in a leper colony, while Henne has lost his starting gig in Jacksonville to Blake Bortles. Tom Brady, this could be your life.


K.C. Sunshine
There wasn’t supposed to be a lot of football betting value with the Chiefs this year. They have indeed come back down to earth somewhat, but after looking like hot garbage through the first six quarters, Kansas City (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) has righted the ship and allowed just 18 points over the last six quarters combined. The Chiefs took the same Miami team that embarrassed New England in Week 1 and romped 34-15 as 5.5-point road dogs in Week 3.

Word came down the Thursday newswires that RB Jamaal Charles (5.0 yards per carry last year) is expected to suit up this week after missing the Dolphins game with a sore ankle. That word came from head coach Andy Reid, who put Charles through something close to a full practice on Thursday. As well as Knile Davis (3.9 yards per carry) has performed in relief, this is still a positive development for the Chiefs – if Reid is being forthright.

It’s also enough to ensure we place our NFL pick on Kansas City for Monday night’s game. But we should point out the disparity in average bet size on our expanded consensus report: $137 for the Chiefs, and $2,704 for the Patriots. Someone out there really loves New England. We expect more of those someones to open up their wallets as the weekend approaches, in which case, you might want to delay your K.C. bet until closer to kick-off and get a cheaper price.


The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: KC

Defense/Special Teams: NE

Coaching: NE

Market Bias: KC

Betting Line Value: KC

Verdict: 1-star pick on KC

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Chiefs +3.5 at YouWager

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":290623, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here