Week 3 NFL Touchdown Prop Picks: Will Dameon Pierce Find the End Zone Against the Bears?

Prop bettors should take notice of the juicy matchup Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce lands in against the poor Chicago Bears run defense. Here are your Week 3 NFL touchdown prop picks.

There are endless touchdown betting markets available, and plenty of strategies to consider when looking to wager on who will find the end zone.

This is a peek at three markets, and the picks predominately focus on value and long odds. 

Here are our Week 3 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; Pick confidence is  based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Anytime Touchdown Picks

• Dameon Pierce, Texans (+170 via DraftKings) ★★★
• James Cook, Bills (+800 via PointsBet) ★★
• Bryan Edwards, Falcons (+1100 via FanDuel) ★

Pierce anytime TD scorer (+170)

The Houston Texans surprisingly eased rookie running back Dameon Piece in against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. But he was more involved when facing the Denver Broncos in Week 2 with 15 carries for 69 yards and an eight-yard reception. 

Most importantly, Pierce received three red-zone carries against the Broncos, including a tote from the 4-yard line.

The Chicago Bears allow the second-highest rushing success rate and they grade 29th in rush defense, according to Pro Football Focus. That makes Sunday's game an ideal matchup for the rookie back to score his first career touchdown.

Cook anytime TD scorer (+800)

Most of Buffalo Bills running back James Cook’s work came during the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2, but he still rushed 11 times for a healthy 53 yards. 

The Bills selected Cook during the second round during the 2022 draft, and his role will grow in the high-octane Buffalo offense. 

This game is tied for the highest total on the Week 3 docket, so the rookie’s inflated odds to find the end zone are even more attractive. After all, Cook is as low as +300 to score a touchdown at Caesars Sportsbook. 

Edwards anytime TD scorer (+1100)

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Bryan Edwards has registered just a single reception for two yards on three targets in 2022, so his long odds to find the end zone in Week 3 are warranted.

However, two of his three looks have come in the red zone, and the Seattle Seahawks' secondary is vulnerable. Seattle is posting the third-lowest coverage grade, and the Seahawks are surrendering the highest EPA per dropback, according to PFF.

Additionally, Seattle will likely rely on undersized cornerbacks Mike Jackson (6-foot-1), Coby Bryant (6-foot-1), and/or Justin Coleman (5-foot-11) to match up against the 6-foot-3 Edwards..

Two or More Touchdowns Picks

• Joe Mixon, Bengals (+450 via FanDuel) ★★
• Davante Adams, Raiders (+625 via Caesars) ★★

Mixon two or more Touchdowns (+450)

No team has allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs than the New York Jets dating back to 2021, and the Cincinnati Bengals are in a must-win spot after losing consecutive games as a seven-point favorite.

Bengals running back Joe Mixon has received five red-zone carries – including three from inside the five-yard line – without finding the end zone. Positive regression against a poor rush defense should be coming.

Additionally, Mixon scored twice in three consecutive games during the 2021 campaign, and the Jets are allowing the second-highest EPA per play to start 2022. Cincinnati and Mixon are going to get ample opportunities to score in Week 3.

Adams two or more Touchdowns (+625)

This is a simple handicap. 

The Tennessee Titans just allowed Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to score three touchdowns in Week 2. The Titans also sport the eighth-lowest coverage grade, per PFF. 

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams has scored a touchdown in two straight games, and he's already been given five red-zone targets in 2022. His odds to score twice are also as low as +425 through PointsBet.

The Titans are on a short week too, and starting cornerback Kristian Fulton (hamstring) only practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday and Thursday after missing Week 2. 

First Touchdown Scorer Picks

• Mark Andrews, Ravens (+750 via FanDuel) ★★
• Tyler Higbee, Rams (+1100 via DraftKings) ★★

Andrews first TD scorer (+750)

With the New England Patriots scoring just 24 points and ranking 17th in EPA per play through two games, there’s a good chance the Baltimore Ravens score first on Sunday. After all, the Ravens pace the league in EPA per dropback in the first half.

Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews found the end zone in Week 2, and he's totaled 26 scores while receiving 55 red-zone targets over the past three seasons.

Taking it a step further, Andrews has hauled in 16 first-half touchdowns during his career, including six in the first quarter. He should get opportunities against the Pats, who have registered the seventh-worst coverage grade, per PFF.

Higbee first TD scorer (+1100)

Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has been an early-season favorite of quarterback Matthew Stafford. He's already received 20 targets, including four in the red zone. Higbee was also held just short of scoring during the Rams’ opening series in their Week 2 win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Another soft matchup is coming in Week 3.

The Arizona Cardinals allowed Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to score in Week 1, and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller notched a TD in Week 2. Chiefs tight end Jody Fortson also found the end zone against the Cards.

Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Week 3 NFL touchdown prop picks made 9/23/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET