Week -3 Thursday Night Football Final Thoughts: Rams vs. 49ers Breakdown

sports picks for TNF

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 21, 2017 5:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 21, 2017 5:14 PM GMT

The Rams and 49ers meet up tonight in one of the nastier looking Thursday Night Football games on the slate early in the season. With a total of 40 points and a spread at -3 in favor of the road Rams, here are some things to watch for in order to find some late value additions to your NFL Picks tonight.

Sack-a-palooza

I have a new feature article coming out on how bad offensive line play has been over the first two weeks of the season, and whether to bet on that to continue. After the first two weeks of the season, quarterbacks have been sacked 162 times. That’s several dozen more times than the first two weeks of last season, and with how many O-lineman are banged up around the league this isn’t surprising.

We might see more of the same in this Week-3 NFL affair. The sack total from Bovada sportsbook tonight is just 5, and with bad play from the 49ers and the potential for Jared Goff to take a couple, the over is once again looking juicy for a game where the QB gets put on his ass a few times.

Taking The Points?

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Dating back to Dec. 13, 2015 the #49ers have a record of 3-19. All three wins came against the #Rams. #TNF #LAvsSF

— Brandon Bate (@NoPlanB_) September 20, 2017
\n\n"}[/]

The 49ers only winning three games over the last 20-plus months is more concerning to me than the fact that all three wins have come against the Rams. These are not your Jeff Fisher-coached Rams.

Sean McVay and his staff have revamped the offense, unleashing Todd Gurley and developing Goff pretty quickly. Goff has a Passer Rating of 103.1 so far through two games, and he could easily increase that against the hapless 49ers tonight.

Therefore, even though the 49ers have probably out-played and definitely out-coached the Rams over the last few seasons, I’m not using that as a basis to take the points tonight. If anything, the value is on the Rams, but personally, I am laying off any spread bet on this game.

Thursday’s are notoriously fickle, especially divisional games on Thursdays, and that spells bad news for anyone trying to take or lay three points on most betting odds boards. A teaser might not be a bad idea if you like the 49ers to keep it within 10 points, but other than that this game has more value in props and totals that the spread.

Total Betting

If you’re sold on the Rams’ defense, but not sold on Goff on the road for the first time this season, and on a short week, you probably love the under. The 49ers aren’t going to score many points either way with a team total of 17 ½ at most shops, so it might not be a bad under play on them if you think Los Angeles is going to stomp them.

If you’re looking to be contrarian though, taking the over on the 49ers’ first-half total of 9 ½ might be the best bet for our NFL picks tonight. Over the last three seasons, San Francisco is averaging exactly 9 ½ points in the first half against the Rams.

However, their averages in their three home games against the Rams over the last three seasons is 11.3, and if Brian Hoyer can figure some stuff out on this short week, I like their chances of getting 10 points before halftime.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193056, "sportsbooksIds":[93,238,139,999996,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":2 }[/]

comment here