Week 3 Predictions - Think Twice Before Adding These Games To Your NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, September 24, 2016 8:54 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 24, 2016 8:54 AM UTC

Did you listen to me in Week 2 when I said to stay away from the favored Seahawks at the Rams? Or the Redskins at -2.5 vs. the Cowboys? Seattle and Washington lost outright. Here are three BetOnline NFL spreads I deem too risky to wager in Week 3.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills (+4 For NFL Picks)
At most of SBR's best sportsbooks, the Cardinals are taking the biggest lead on the board of any game, generally north of 75 percent of the early action is on Arizona. On the surface, that makes sense. The Cardinals are clearly the better team something the oddsmakers will maybe agree on and will be reflected across the board. They probably should have beaten New England in Week 1 and then destroyed a pretty good Tampa Bay team last Sunday. If you go position-by-position among the starters on both teams here, you might not pick more than a  few Bills.

Buffalo, meanwhile, is one of eight winless teams and looked inept offensively in Week 1 and defensively in Week 2. Coach Rex Ryan said before the season he would be the first one to go if the Bills were struggling, but Ryan went back on that promise by firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the highest-paid OC in the NFL, following last week's 37-31 home loss to the Jets. The Bills rank 30th in the NFL in total yards, 29th in passing yards, 29th in third-down efficiency and 31st in first downs. So the Bills seem a mess. But working against Arizona is the fact, this is the Cardinals' first road game of the season and also one of that tricky 10 a.m. Pacific time starts. Plus the Bills are on extra rest off that Week 2 Thursday game. Ryan has been absolutely talking up the Cardinals all week to his players, which isn't his style. It's now or never for this team and desperate teams can surprise.

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Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals  (-3 In NFL Bets)
The Broncos are in the same boat as the Cardinals as this is their first road game and also an early start time. Perhaps most important, it's the first time Trevor Siemian will be under center in an opposing stadium. It won't be quite as easy for a two-game starter to make changes at the line of scrimmage with those Bengals fans surely making noise when the Broncos have the ball.

The Broncos’ record in September over their past three seasons is 11-1, which is the league’s best but still think about it before making them your NFL pick. But of course that was with Peyton Manning at quarterback and noise didn't bother the future Hall of Famer. Denver will be without two key injured players here in right tackle Donald  Stephenson and excellent pass-rushing linebacker DeMarcus Ware. The good news for Cincinnati is that quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown for 732 yards, the most in the NFL.

The bad is that the Bengals can't run the ball, averaging only 51.5 yards per game, second-to-last. Thus Von Miller could have a field day in getting to Dalton if there's no running threat. Dalton also was hobbled after last week's loss in Pittsburgh with a hip injury but will play.

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San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5 On NFL Odds)
This should be an offensive extravaganza as neither defense is very good. Poor Philip Rivers as he just has the worst injury luck around him in San Diego. In Week 1, Rivers lost his top receiver, Keenan Allen, to a season-ending torn ACL. And then last week, the Bolts lost one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL, Danny Woodhead, to the same thing. Rivers will still put up points with Travis Benjamin and Melvin Gordon to help him out. The Chargers are second in the NFL in scoring at 32.5 ppg. Rivers has owned the Colts, going 5-1 career and having completed 112 of 166 passes for 1,295 yards, six touchdowns, and a 92.8 passer rating. But Indianapolis is in must-win mode at 0-2. Andrew Luck missed practice Wednesday with a sore shoulder, but there's no way he sits out. Receiver Donte Moncrief will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured scapula in his left shoulder. Moncrief has seven receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown this season. Cornerbacks Vontae Davis (ankle) and Patrick Robinson (concussion) and safety T.J. Green (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis after they all missed last Sunday's loss in Denver.

That Colts secondary has been ravaged by injuries and Davis is the best of them so his return would be a huge boost. I think the Colts win this one, but I also have zero faith in their defense. 

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