Week 3 NFL Picks Monday Night Football - Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints ​

New Orleans Saints  player in field

Jason Lake

Monday, September 26, 2016 1:45 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 26, 2016 1:45 PM UTC

Of course, Saints have the highest total on the Week 3 NFL odds board. For MNF they will be playing against Falcons at the Superdome. Are totals set too high? Let's verify that to make the best NFL pick for this match.

And there was much rejoicing. Our strategy of going UNDER versus the highest totals on the NFL odds board is bearing fruit; the New Orleans Saints helped us out in their 16-13 loss to the New York Giants (UNDER 54), a really ugly game at the New Meadowlands filled with turnovers and injuries – and solid defense from the G-Men. Are you not entertained?!

Naturally, the Saints have the highest total for Week 3, but this time, they're playing on Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons, and they're playing in the cozy-ish confines of the Superdome. The total is 53.5 at press time, same as it was at the open, with 65 percent of early bettors on the OVER. Should we stay the course, or abandon ship?

Monday's matchup is definitely more conducive to high scoring. Football Outsiders have Atlanta ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency through two games, and No. 30 on defense. New Orleans checks in at No. 6 on offense and No. 23 on defense. No surprises there. And you know how the Saints are at the Superdome; the OVER is 6-0-1 in their last seven home games.

On the other hand, the UNDER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these two AFC South rivals, including 2-0-1 in their last three games at the Superdome. The underdog has also won the last four straight-up, so the classic underdog-UNDER parlay has been highly profitable in this matchup – Atlanta is +3 at press time if you're so inclined.

We'll content ourselves with recommending the UNDER for your week 3 NFL picks. It's not nearly as good a set-up as Week 2 against the Giants, and there hasn't been any movement yet on the odds board, so there isn't going to be much profit margin – and your bet size should be kept accordingly small. But there are enough reasons to stick with the program, including the dubious New Orleans offensive line/tight end situation. If RT Zach Strief winds up limited in practice or on the sidelines after suffering a chest injury against New York, all the better.

Free NFL Pick: Under 53.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
Record: 5-2 ATS, 3-2 Totals

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