Week 3 NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 9:10 PM GMT

This new article looking for false favorites and quality underdogs has gotten off to a good start at 4-2 against the NFL odds. This week I have honed in two favorites that might be pricey. One underdog might be extra hungry against the NFL odds and be worthy of a NFL pick on the money line.

Miami No Bargain Playing at Home as a Favorite
On the surface, the Dolphins as a home favorite seems appropriate. Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 and making NFL football handicappers look wise as a wager on the Chiefs season win total. (Under)  Kansas City is also playing its second straight road game and Miami is off an ugly setback at Buffalo and would want redemption.

A few problems with this line of thinking. Miami without Knowshon Marino due to injury leaves quite a void because the running backs they have used the past few years are not quick to the hole, which diminishes the running game. While it is true the Chiefs will not have Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis is better than anyone the Dolphins have.

Next let’s ponder the Fins spread record as home favorites since 2004, how does 11-29 sound using your money to back them?

If Miami was at -3, probably would have not made this article but at -5, you could be swimming with the fishes to a spread loss on this one.

NFL False Favorite: Miami

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Don’t get Buffaloed by Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills have yet to lose and appear to be catching the San Diego Chargers at the right time. The Chargers upset the Super Bowl champions Seattle at home on a short week and San Diego will have to make a cross-country flight to upstate New York for a 9:00 am kickoff Pacific Time.

Buffalo is showing why sometimes preseason results do not matter, as they had a tumultuous time on and off the field, but everything has settled down and the Bills moving from NFL odds at -1 to -2.5 with most sportsbooks makes sense. 

One factor that still arises and has to be answered, who is the better team? While it is true the best team does not always win, San Diego is a big physical team that can dominate the line of scrimmage on either side and since Phillip Rivers has been taking snaps for the Bolts, this is team that thrives on positive emotion and it does not much better than beating the reigning champs.

Though Buffalo has been moving upward as a favorite, only 45 percent of wagers placed are on the Bills, suggesting wise guys action on the Chargers for NFL picks.

NFL False Favorite: Buffalo

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Denver Eyes Rematch
As Peyton Manning said before their first game with Indianapolis on Sunday, “Losing the Super Bowl was disappointing enough, but having to talk about since is nearly as bad”.

There is no way to reverse what happened, but Manning and Denver can set the table for a possible rematch in Arizona in February and achieve a certain level of satisfaction for this new season with the upset at Seattle.

Every oddsmakers and NFL football handicapper is aware the Seahawks deserves to be a five-point favorite, but the Broncos have added incentive and while this does not guarantee victory, that emotion can lead to powerful results. The Denver defense is better and Manning shows no signs of slowing down.

Take the points in what looks to be a three digit outcome.

NFL Underdog with Bite: Denver

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