Week 3 NFL Picks: Capper has Early Lean on Texans -6.5 Over Bucs

Ross Benjamin

Monday, September 21, 2015 6:41 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 6:41 PM UTC

We’re going to take an early look at Sunday’s NFL contest between Tampa Bay & Houston. Take the time to read this compelling betting preview that will provide you with a substantial wagering edge.

Texans seeking First Win of 2015 at Home vs. Bucs
Houston will host Tampa Bay on Sunday at NRG Stadium with a slated 1:00 PM ET kickoff. According to early (Monday 9/21) NFL betting odds at at The Greek Houston is a 6-5 point favorite, and the posted total is 40.5.

Tampa Bay is coming off a huge 26-19 win as a 10.0 point underdog at Tampa Bay. The win evened their record at 1-1. Houston was a 24-17 loser at Carolina this past Sunday, and failed to cover as a 3.0 point underdog. The Texans will be seeking their first win of the 2015 season.


NFL Handicapping Algorithms
Those of you who have followed me over the years are well aware of handicapping algorithms being a part of my daily arsenal when attacking sportsbooks. They’ve especially been successful in the NFL during the month of September. My documented NFL paid selections have gone a remarkable 67-31 (68%) in September since 2010, and the use of algorithms has been an integral part of that success. In the following two paragraphs I’m going to display how this method applies to both teams on Sunday.


NFL ATS History Doesn’t Favor Tampa Bay
Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 to 10.0, coming off an away underdog of 10.0 or more straight up win by 16 points or less, resulted in that away underdog going 5-19 ATS (23.8%) since 1981. When looking at this exact scenario logically, general public betting tends to overvalue the road underdog based on what transpired the week before, and sportsbooks make the necessary adjustment in accordance with public perception.


Annals of NFL Betting Lore on the Side of Houston
Any non-division home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 that’s won 18 or less of their previous 32 games, versus an opponent coming off a divisional straight up underdog win, resulted in that home favorite going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home team won those fifteen games by a decisive margin of 22.4 points per contest. Let’s look at this situation from a basic common sense viewpoint. We have a favorite with moderate to poor success over a two year span, versus an opponent which has captured the public eye with an upset win in their previous game. Although I don’t have the exact supporting data, you can almost be assured, the road underdog received plenty of betting action in a majority of these specific fifteen games. I can say with no degree of uncertainty, whether it’s in Las Vegas, offshore, or Europe, sportsbooks unequivocally don’t give money away by posting soft lines.


Final Analysis
We have a classic example of one team (Tampa Bay) being nowhere near as good as they looked last week, versus an opponent (Houston) which isn’t as bad as they looked during the first two weeks of this 2015 NFL campaign. I’ll have an early lean on the Houston Texans for one of my NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Play Houston -6.5 Over Tampa Bay

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