Week 3 NFL Picks: Bet Packers to Win & Cover as Chiefs Descend on Lambeau Monday Night

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 12:02 PM GMT

The Trends here point to Kansas City, but with Aaron Rodgers & Randall Cobb clicking, Eddie Lacy healing & expected to play, is the 6½ points  NFL odds makers are giving the chiefs a little light? 

Free NFL MNF Picks: Chiefs vs. Packers

Monday Night Football Player Props

Chiefs-Packers O/U MNF Play

Odds Overview
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers [Tuesday 01:30] (ESPN/WatchESPN, Directv 206, 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT): Lambeau Field in Green Bay is the site of this Monday Night Football meeting in Week 3 between the visiting and upstart Kansas City Chiefs (1-1 SU, 1-1) and QB Alex Smith (28-25-2 ATS at Home) and the host Green Bay Packers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) and QB Aaron Rodgers (35-18-3 ATS at Home) in this fun inter-conference showdown. The Advanced Line and Opening Line odds for this game were both -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), but most Las Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks are posting a -7 on this game (Monday night). The Total has been set at 48 (Pinnacle), while the Moneyline NFL odds see the host Packers as -310 favorites with Kansas City priced at +255 on the takeback (5Dimes). An Alternate Line from 5Dimes has the Packers at -7½ +110 (Chiefs +7½, -130) while another going the other way sees Green Bay -6½ juiced at -130 (Chiefs +3½, +110).

 

Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6 SU overall in 2014, 11-6 ATS) have played two very good games this season—a win over the Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, 27-20 in Week 1 and then a heartbreaking loss in the Home opener last Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium to the Broncos at Home at Arrowhead Stadium in both sides’ AFC West opener in Week 2. It don’t come easy. Kansas City still hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passing game since 2013—while still getting absolutely no TDs from its WRs since the Automobile was invented. This team is an enigma. Chiefs QB Alex Smith (41-18-1 SU L60 starts) did get that needed threat in the Offseason when Kansas City signed Free Agent WR Jeremy Maclin, but getting it to him is half the problem so  TE Travis Kelce is the main target for Smith and player the Chiefs throw to when they need the sure catch and the shorter yardage. Where this team thrives on Offense is at RB, with Jamaal Charles (21 rushes, 125 yards, TD vs. Broncos), Knile Davis and De’Anthony Thomas, but when a team has trouble scoring TDs via the Pass, coming from behind is a big problem, meaning that those types of teams need to try to play lockdown Defense...if they can. The Kansas City Defense (281 PA in 204) was pretty impressive against Denver, limiting the Rushing attack the Broncos talked about developing to 61 total yards on 22 carries. (Back in The Lab, Kubiak.) Or in words, not good. Jaye Howard (8 tackles), Justin Houston (6 tackles) and Ron Parker (6 tackles) led the charge defensively for Kansas City, and they will have to be even better here on Monday night on the Desso GrassMaster surface at Lambeau Field where Green Bay seems to have a definite edge, with Packers WRs often looking like ice skaters. Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid (20-15 ATS) and QB Smith (28-22-2 ATS as Underdog) are both proven winners oft-overlooked by the General Public, but here against the Packers, they’ll really have their hands full and best hope Charles is running wild and mad and getting First Downs in an attempt to keep the pigskin out of Rodgers’ hands. One good thing? Kansas City will be coming in with 9 days of rest while he host Packers will have only 6 and will be recovering from a bruising game with the Seattle Seahawks here in Green Bay on Sunday night. But either way, this probably won’t be a fun trip for Kansas City (25/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power), despite its surprising success against the Packers throughout the years. Otis Taylor can you hear me?

 

Green Bay Packers
The addition of former Packer WR James Jones—released by the New York Giants—seems to be the perfect patchwork for the Green Bay Packers (12-4 in 2104, 486 PF-348 PA last season) quilt with favorite target Jordy Nelson (ACL tear in Knee) injured and out for maybe the entire season for the Green and Gold. And the 31-year-old Jones has not disappointed, making 5 catches so far for 80 yards and 3 TDs and providing a nice compliment to star Randall Cobb (13 receptions, 154 yards, TD) and Davante Adams (9 receptions, 92 yards) for QB Aaron Rodgers (37-33-3 ATS vs. Non-Division). Green Bay (+450 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) and Head Coach Mike McCarthy (92-63-4 ATS) also have to worry about the health of RB Eddie Lacy (Ankle, Questionable), but expect the former Alabama star to go on Monday. With 1,500+ yard man Nelson out, and Lacy and Adams (Ankle, Probable) hobbled, look for more heavy doses of RB James Starks (10 rushes, 90 yards vs. Seahawks), WR Cobb and TEs Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless. Also out (until November) and a big loss is T Bryan Bulaga (Knee), but here at Home, Rodgers seldom if ever throws Interceptions and much like the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (+550 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power), precise, short passing patterns with receivers who almost always catch the football is Green Bay’s forté. On Defense, where the Packers look to improve this season—as outscoring opponents will be a little bit harder now without the prolific Nelson—and with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (9 tackles vs., Seahawks), Micah Hyde (7 tackles), Mike Daniels (5 tackles), Nate Palmer (4 tackles), Mike Neal (4 tackles), LB Clay Matthews, NT BJ Raji, Morgan Burnett, Casey Hayward, Mike Pennel, Mike Daniels, Sam Shields and Julius Peppers, Green Bay does have the talent to hold opponents down, but their style of play often leads to higher-scoring games with gunslinger Rodgers knowing he can put the ball in the air to get points when necessary. Some luxury. And the 31-year-old Rodgers already has 438 yards Passing, 5 TDs and a sparkly 128.4 QBR but will face a challenge from the talented Kansas City DBs like Marcus Peters, Ron Parker and cancer-free veteran Eric Berry.

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
The Trends here support taking Kansas City, with the Chiefs 6-1 ATS over the L7 meetings with the Packers and Kansas City 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings in Green Bay in this series. The last time these two teams met here at Lambeau Field was way back in 2003 where the Packers lost 40-34 in OT, while the last meeting between these two was at Arrowhead Stadium in 2011 where Green Bay lost outright 19-14 as 11½-point favorites. Despite the numbers, it’s important to remember these NFC North and AFC West teams seldom play, and that the last meeting here was 12 years ago, when Rodgers (35-18-3 ATS Home) was 19 years old and twitter was what birds did. With the inside track to Homefield advantage seemingly theirs in the NFC with Sunday’s win over Seattle, Dallas’s multitude of Injuries and Seattle and Philadelphia’s ugly 0-2 starts, expect Green Bay to fine tune the Offense and work on the Defense here against a Kansas City side it will respect, but also expect to beat handily by double-digits. The key players of Offense here for Green Bay will be QB Rodgers, TE Richard Rodgers (Neck, Questionable), WR Cobb, WR Jones, RB Starks and RB Lacy, while the Chiefs and Smith will hope to finally connect long with WR Maclin for that elusive passing TD and pound Charles as much as possible and find TE Kelce when needed. If the Chiefs are to pull off the upset here, workhorse RB Charles will likely have to rush for 150+ yards and get 2 TDs and pound the Packers defensive front until they’re worn out. But in Green Bay, that’s always easier schemed than done. As for this Monday Night NFL pick, the Packers are simply magical here (8-0 SU at Home in 2014) at Lambeau Field and should win by at least 10 points against a very good Defensive team, but a team which needs to learn how to score points easier.

 

Predicted Final Score: Green Bay Packers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 17

NFL Week 3 Pick: Packers -6½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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