Week 3 NFL Picks: Bears & Seahawks Looking for their First Win, Who Should We Side With?

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 11:56 AM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 11:56 AM GMT

Bears & Seahawks collide in week 3, a pair of teams still searching for a first W on the term. Can the Bears spring a surprise or will the Seahawks come through as the considerable home faves?

Chicago Bears Searching For W
The Chicago Bears are off to a disappointing 0-2 SU start on the season under new head coach John Fox. It was always going to be a tough ask for the Denver Broncos cast off in a competitive NFC North division that contains perennial favourites Green Bay Packers, not to mention an NFL schedule that ranks 13th overall this season, loaded at the start with five out of six games against teams that went above .500 last season, four of which went into the postseason.

The Bears began their campaign against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field, but despite home advantage both NFL odds and trends were against them and it came as no surprise when those held strong in a 31-23 loss. In week 2 NFL betting, they took on the Cardinals at Soldier Field. Once again, home advantage proved a moot point as they succumbed to a whopping 48-23 loss. Most concerning, Jay Cutler was injured during the game and is slated to be out for two weeks at the very least. Enter Jimmy Clausen.

Next up are the Seattle Seahawks in week 3 NFL betting, the second NFC West team in as many weeks and one of the teams to spot this season on account of back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (winners in 2013 and runners up in 2014). The load is getting anything but lighter, all while the pressure mounts as the Bears continue searching for their first win of the season.

If you thought the fact that the Seattle Seahawks were also 0-2 SU would give the Bears some measure of reprieve on the NFL odds board, then you’ve not been paying much attention to NFL betting markets. Granted the Seattle Seahawks may have been usurped by the Green Bay Packers atop the Super Bowl 50 futures leader board and overtaken by the New England Patriots, but they are still amongst the top favourites to win outright. Third overall at +650 NFL futures odds at Bet365, to be exact.

Fact is the Seattle Seahawks don’t have the easiest schedule either. In fact, ranked fourth toughest overall in the NFL, brutal is a more apt word. Plus, Pete Carroll teams aren’t best built to win road games per se, and they are after back-to-back road games in the first two weeks of the season against tough opponents no less, in the Rams and Packers.

Home domination highlights the bulk of Seattle’s success in the league, underscored by their league-leading 26-2-0 SU record since 2012 at CenturyLink. Super Bowl 49 champions New England Patriots are second with a 26-4-0 record over the same stretch while the Denver Broncos are third with a 25-4-0 record.

Curiously – and this is worth taking stock of – the Seahawks boast an average 14-point winning margin over this stretch of 28 games. That this is the exact number this game opened on in spread betting is no mean coincidence.

 

Seattle Seahawks Searching For W
Seattle’s quest for a first W is about to end; that is, if the NFL odds were any indication. After opening as the 14-point favourites against the spread at first doors, they’ve been bet up to a staggering 16-points at some sportsbooks such as 5Dimes. That’s just crazy! Thank early NFL bettors, 88% of which are laying the points with Seattle.

But is it really going to be such a straightforward clash? One would think John Fox was leading the Care Bears into battle at CenturyLink. Part of it is down to the fact that Jay Cutler Is out for the next couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. But is that really bad news? Consider Cutler is second on the quarterback list with the most giveaways/turnovers at 26 (Luck has 28) since 2014, perhaps Clausen might be a breath of fresh air.

Undoubtedly, Seattle has the weapons to get the crucial W in order to get their campaign off the mark. However, it’s our opinion that 16-points to cover is a lot considering they were defeated by the Rams in overtime and smoked by the Packers in the fourth quarter in week 2. Those losses may have come on the road, but let’s not downplay the impact toppling a big, bad, bully has in the eyes of the rest of the field. To see the Legion of Boom falter in two games and the tandem of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch stifled is illuminating. Not to mention, John Fox has a handy blueprint to work with.

This doesn’t mean the Bears are going to traipse into CenturyLink and flee the coop with a win (amazing and shocking that would be…hmmm), but it might send them into this game with a measure of optimism to keep it closer than the odds makers would suggest. True the Bears have left much to be desired in the first two weeks, but give John Fox and the coaching staff a chance to get the team on track. Growing pains aren’t unusual when new schemes are introduced. Seattle should win this game based on their home record, but Bears could keep it closer than the 16-point spread. Take the Bears plus the points on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Bears +16 (-120) at 5Dimes

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