Week 3 Lines Moving Into Favor - What Side are You on? Public or Sharp

Jay Pryce

Saturday, September 23, 2017 1:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 23, 2017 1:30 PM UTC

Nearly 24 hours out from another NFL Sunday, here are some favorable line moves for both the public and sharps in Week 3. What side are you on?

Broncos (-3) at Bills

New Bills head coach Sean McDermott appears to have a special defense in Buffalo this year. The unit has surrendered a total of 21 points, allowing a paltry 234.5 yards per game. The Bills have not trailed by more than 6 points at any time all season and were one play away from forcing overtime in Carolina last week.

The public doesn’t seem to care or is overlooking the fact. Almost 80 percent of spread bets tallied from several top-rated online sportsbooks support the Broncos this Sunday after a dominating home win against the Cowboys last time out. Oddsmakers opened Denver -1, but overwhelming support has pushed it to the key number of a field goal. The juice sits at -120 Saturday morning and more money could force another half point.

Before lying points, consider this: since the start of last season, Denver is 3-4 SU and ATS away from Mile High in contests within a 4-point spread. This is its first road test this year, and it is not an easy one. The line is favorable for Buffalo in a projected low-scoring, coin-flip contest.

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Raiders (-3) at Redskins

The Raiders-Redskins total is the highest ever for a game in Washington D.C. Oddsmakers opened the game at 53.5 points. It has risen to 55 as of Saturday morning. Under head coach Jack Del Rio, only three of 18 road contests have eclipsed this mark. Seems like a favorable line for those leaning the under

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Chiefs (-3) at Chargers

The sharp money is backing the Chargers this Sunday at home versus the Chiefs. Slightly 70 percent of spread tickets support Kansas City, yet the line has dipped to a field goal after opening -4.5 in favor of the visitors. The spread appears dead to Los Angeles backers without the hook, but even more favorable for the public. The Chiefs are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Chargers won by exactly 3 points in each of their wins.

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Steelers (-7.5) at Bears

Sure the Bears are 4-11 SU in their last 15 home games, but only two defeats were by more than 6 points. The Steelers contest will mark just the second time since 2009 Chicago kicks off spotted a touchdown or greater at Soldier Field. Almost 75 percent of spread tickets back Pittsburgh, yet sharp money is keeping the number unchanged at its -7.5 initial offer. Want to be a wise guy? Take the points for your NFL picks. The line is very favorable.

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Browns (-1) at Colts

The fact the Browns are road chalk for the first time since 2014 dominates much of the sports betting discussion regarding its clash with the Colts Sunday. They lost 24-6 at the Jaguars as 5-point favorites last time; good luck picking a side in this one.

The more favorable line is with the total, and the number is fair on either side of the over-under. This game marks a tale of two trends: one current, the other historical. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight road contests against teams with a losing record. The combined score is 50.4 points, playing more than 6 points above a 44.1 average total. The Browns defense tends to roll over in this spot, allowing 24 points or more in each.

The ‘under’ is 14-2, however, when the Colts host an AFC North opponent since 2003. Indy’s defense is holding foes to 12.5 points per game in this situation. Either way, you bet, the number is enticing at 42.5, up from a 41 opener.

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Must Read: NFL Week 3 Predictions: Game-by-Game Picks
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