Week 2 Trends to Beat the Books: Stupid Is as Stupid Does

Wednesday, September 12, 2018 11:41 AM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 12, 2018 11:41 AM UTC

Stupid is as stupid does. Here are 10 interesting betting trends and situations to beat the books in Week 2 of the 2018 NFL regular season. Forrest Gump approved.

Run! Forrest! Run!!!

The Redskins topped the NFL with 182 rushing yards in their 24-6 Week 1 win over the Cardinals, fueled by a 96-yard, 2 TD performance by veteran RB Adrian Petersen. Expect Washington to feed the backs a ton as an encore vs. Indy. The ‘under’ is 10-5 behind head coach Jay Gruden when the Redskins host a team posting fewer rushing yards on the season, averaging 105.5 on the ground via 27.5 carries. Six of the last seven in this situation has stayed below 41 points.

My Mama Always Said …

You can’t predict turnovers. Nonetheless, you can bet teams with issues coughing it up in the opener will make possession a top priority the following week. Since 1989, the ‘under’ is 30-16-3 (65.2 percent) when a squad that committed zero turnovers in Week 1 squares off against a unit that coughed it up three times or more. The Chiefs were one of three teams (Rams, Buccaneers) to allow no takeaways last Sunday, while the Steelers gifted a league-high six.

Here’s One More Pointing to a Chiefs-Steelers ‘Under’

In five prior matchups against the Steelers while leading the Chiefs, Andy Reid is 1-4 SU and ATS, failing to cover a -0.4 average line by 7.4 points per game. Kansas City musters just 15.6 points per game, the rushing attack averaging a paltry 70.6 yards. The ‘under’ has hit in all but one with an 38.2 average final score.

Rodgers Division Dominance

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers’ availability for Week 2 is still in doubt after injuring his knee in a 24-23 win over the Bears. If he suits up, consider backing Green Bay over Minnesota. Rodgers is 23-4 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73.1 percent) under center hosting NFC North rivals at Lambeau Field. His replacements are 1-2-1 SU and 1-3 ATS.

Big Loser Rebound

Since 1990, Week 1 favorites to lose by more than two touchdowns are 22-13-1 ATS (62.9 percent) the following week. The Cardinals catching 10 points at the Rams and Lions getting a field goal at San Francisco qualify here. Teams are 19-17 SU in this spot, despite kicking off a 1.6 average underdog.

Errant Stafford Spells Trouble

When Lions QB Matt Stafford tosses multiple interceptions in a contest, the Lions average 15.9 points per game in follow-up road efforts. Detroit has failed to reach its team total in 12 of 15 in this betting situation. For you DFS and prop bettors, Stafford’s stat line reads: 229.2 yards, 1.2 TDs, 0.8 INTs, 6.5 yards per pass on 35.4 attempts.

Home Dog Bills Value

The Bills are 22-12-2 ATS (64.7 percent) as home underdogs hosting non-division opponents in their last 36 games. Coming off a matchup loss, the record inches up to 16-6-1 ATS. The Chargers routed Buffalo in L.A. 54-24 as 6.5-point chalk in Week 11 last season.

Stupid Is as Stupid Does

Do not over adjust to what you witnessed in the opener. In Week 2, home favorites laying more than a field goal to an opponent that equaled or accrued more wins the previous season are 20-33 ATS (37.7 percent) since 1992. This comes up four times this week: Raiders (6 wins in 2017) at Broncos (5), Panthers (11) at Falcons (10), Lions (9) at 49ers (6), and Seahawks (9) at Bears (5).

That’s All I Got to Say About That

The Cowboys are 10-24 ATS (71.6 percent) as home favorite to NFC opponents under head coach Jason Garrett. They’ve lost 12 of 18 outright laying less than 6 points. That’s all I got to say about that.

Jags Redemption?

The Patriots are a perfect 10-0 SU against the Jaguars, eight of which with star QB Tom Brady under center. Since 2007, however, Brady is just 6-11 SU and ATS in regular season road tests with a line in-between a field goal when up against an opponent he bested last time out. New England topped Jacksonville 24-20 in last year’s AFC Championship Game.

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