Week 2 Sunday Night Football Picks - Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings ​

Minnesota Vikings fans cheering for team

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 18, 2016 9:07 PM GMT

Minneapolis will show off new US Bank Stadium in primetime on Sunday Night Football this weekend Let’s take a look at all we know now with two pretty beat-up but talented teams for some NFL picks.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 27 PS-23 PA) head to the brand new US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 25 PS-16 PA) in a huge NFL Regular Season Week 2 NFC North showdown and Sunday Night Football delight. With Vikings starting QB Teddy Bridgewater injured, backup Shaun Hill got the call in Minnesota’s Week 1 Win, but this weekend it may be recent Eagles acquisition Sam Bradford who saddles up and gets the start. Offshore sportsbooks including GTBets—which is currently offering a 100% Cash Bonus (up to $250) —currently has the visiting Packers as 2-point favorites (-115, GTBets) with the Total (Points) currently at 44 Under -115 (GTBets).

In the Money Line (Winner) marketplace, Jordy Nelson and Green Bay are priced at -130 with host Minnesota lined +110 on the takeback (GTBets) although a +125 can be found if shopping online. The select Advanced Line for NFL Week 2 from the world’s largest sportsbook—the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—had this game open up as a Pick ‘em Green Bay while the 2016 NFL Games of the Year also had this NFC North showdown lined as a pick in this spot when those odds first came out in the merry, merry month of May and when nobody could foresee Bridgewater’s catastrophic Injury which some insiders say could be so bad as to possibly be career-ending. Let’s hope not.

 

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Last 12 Series Final Scores, Totals Results
2015—Vikings 20 at Packers 13 Total—44 Result—Under
2015—Packers 30 @ Vikings 13 Total—45½ Result—Under
2014—Packers 24 @ Vikings 21 Total—49½ Result—Under
2014—@Packers 42 Vikings 10 Total—46½ Result—Over
2013—@ Packers 26 Vikings 26, OT Total—44½ Result—Over
2013—Packers 44 @ Vikings 31 Total—47½ Result—Under
2012—@ Packers 24 Vikings 10 Total—44 Result—Under (NFC Playoffs)
2012—@ Vikings 37 Packers 34 Total—45½ Result—Over (HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)
2012—@ Packers 23 Vikings 14 Total—47 Result—Under
2011—@ Packers 45 Vikings 7 Total—49½ Result—Over
2011—Packers 33 @ Vikings 27 Total—36½ Result—Over (HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)
2010—Packers 31 @ Vikings 3 Total—44½ Result—Under (HHH Metrodome, Minneapolis)
>The Under has W3 and is 7-5 in the L12 overall and is 4-2 in the L6 games in Minneapolis.

 


Lowest Total in Offshore Market: 43½ (5Dimes, BetDSI, JustBet, Intertops, Bet365)
Consensus Total in Offshore Market: 44
Highest Total: 44½ (Coast Casinos)


Totals Trends, Thoughts
This number—which opened at 44—has stayed pretty steady so far with the Consensus (below) showing that heading into Thursday, betting on the Cheeseheads was dwarfing betting on Minnesota with a whopping 68.82% of the wagers being placed (1,064 to 482)—and increasing as I type—and 82.83% of the money ($200,032 to $41,452) midweek showing a huge fade of Bradford or Hill or whomever Minnesota has to put under Center.

 

But with the most underrated Defense in the NFL and a great 3rd-year Coach in Mike Zimmer (25-9-0 ATS), the Purple People Eaters can win this game. As far as the Total, maybe no need to really shop around midweek—unless you’re sold on the Over and think the number may sink—as with this being a Prime Time TV game, there should be a fair amount of General Public money on the Over before kickoff. Both Green Bay  and Minnesota have better Defense than people realize and with the Vikings opening up a new building and playing a game that matters for the first time, there should be plenty of butterflies as well as doves crying at US Bank Stadium. The Vikings (8-3-1 Unders L12 games) have been one of the strongest Under teams in the NFL to date, going 4-12-1 O/U last season, and, as you can see, the Under has W3 in a row in this fun series, And Head Coach Mike McCarthy (101-71-4 ATS) and Green Bay have also trended to the Under with a 3-8-1 O/U Totals ATS mark in its L12.

So why the Under? Obviously the Totals numbers have been set a bit too high in Green Bay and Minnesota games and the Packers were without prolific WR Jordy Nelson all last season, QB Aaron Rodgers is aging and not as great as he once was, RB Eddie Lacy still looks slow again and Randall Cobb always seems close to an incurring an injury. And Green Bay games saw a significantly less amount of scoring last season compared to the previous three seasons (49, 52, 52, 43 in 2015), not only because of Nelson’s absence but because Clay Matthews and this Packers Defense are improving so much. In such a big early season NFC North game, with neither team wanting a Loss and in a strange stadium in which neither side has played a meaningful game, expect cautiousness and feeling out the process for the first 20 minutes or so and maybe a 0-0 or 3-0 1st Quarter.

 

Why Take the Minnesota Vikings Money Line in Such a Tough Spot? (In List Form)
The Vikings appear to be worth a small-sized shot at +125 (Sports Interaction) with an equally small and conservative-sized wager in this Sunday Night Football NFL Regular Season Week 2 matchup from Minnesota. Here’s why...

1—It’s a brand new stadium, Bubba. Nobody wants to lose their first real game in their new stadium and have to cry all over the fresh FieldTurf in September. And the Vikings definitely won’t want to lose to their rival the Packers here with everyone watching.

2—The Vikings Defense. Minnesota has a ferocious Defense (18.9 ppg in 2015, #5 in the NFL), was tied for #10 in the NFL in Takeaways last season (+5) and in Regular Season Week 1, Minnesota actually got two scoring TDs—one on a Fumble Return and another on an Interception return—and that kind of thing is addictive and brings Pride to its highest level on that side of the ball. The Super Bowl champion Broncos and Von Miller and the Seahawks and Bobby Wagner know of this feeling.

3—The breaks will likely go the hosts way. Even with Bradford or Hill, Minnesota should be able to manage this game when it has the pigskin and if Hill has to come in, at least he will have a game under his belt and be Confident about how he played. Expect Minnesota to spread the ball around much and work the play clock here and to be very cautious, much like it played against the Jaguars in the NFL Regular Season lidlifter.

4—Minnesota may simply be a little bit better football team at this point in time, despite the odds in this game, the Futures Book prices and the constant public narrative, and were, or still are trying to break into the top, elite tier of teams in the NFL which includes the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings are that good.

 

Sunday Night Football and Other Trends, About US Bank Stadium, How This NFC North Game Game May Evolve
The Sunday Night Football Trends see Green Bay 10-6 ATS on the road and 11-8 ATS as a Favorite while Minnesota is 11-6 ATS as Home and 6-6 ATS as an Underdog, so conflicting Trends in that Prime Time niche. Minnesota is 9-9 ATS vs. the NFC North on SNF while the Cheeseheads have grated out a 9-7 ATS mark under the Sunday spotlights. The Over is

11-4-1 the L16 meetings in Minnesota but the vast majority of the Trends here support backing the Under. For example, the Under is 11-5 in the L16 Packers tilts overall, the Under is 10-2 the L12 Green Bay games in September, the Under is 10-1 the L11 Vikings games against a Team With a Winning record and the Under is 13-5-1 in the L19 Minnesota games overall. The Under is also 9-4 in the L13 Vikings games on FieldTurf (US Bank Stadium), the Under is 11-4 the L15 Minnesota games against the NFC and the Under is also 7-3 in the Vikings L10 Home games.

With TCF Bank Stadium having a Fixed Roof, the Weather will never be an issue in Minneapolis as the Roof at this sparkly new stadium—which could provide a noisy decibel advantage for the hosts—is a translucent one and features the 5 largest pivoting glass doors on the planet. This state-of-the-art roof—which was designed slanted to allow for easier Snow removal—is composed of 60% Ethylene tetrafluoroethylene and spans some 240,000 feet and allows fans a beautiful view of downtown Minneapolis. Here on Sunday night, backing the Vikings to win SU as well as the Under seem like the best angles while using host Minnesota +9 in a 7-point NFL Teaser with teams like the Ravens (PK) against the lowly Cleveland Browns, the Detroit Lions +1½ at Home in Motown against the Tennessee Titans and maybe the Bears (+10½) in Arlington and Jerry World against Rookie Dak Prescott the Cowboys on Monday Night Football may also be worth consideration for you NFL week 2 predictions.

 

Predicted Final Score: Vikings 22 Packers 20
Free NFL Week 2 SNF Picks: Under 44 -110 at GTBets, Vikings Money Line +125 at SportsInteraction
2016 NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 19-8-0
NFL Regular Season Picks ATS Record: 11-3-0

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