Liquid sunshine may have helped the Buffalo Bills beat the NFL odds in Week 1. Where can we expect the skies to open up in Week 2? Maybe over the New Meadowlands.
Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 15: 4-3 ATS; 2-2 Total
Into every bettor's life, a little rain must fall. That can be a very good thing if you play your cards right. We had five games in Week 1 where there was a decent chance of rain at kick-off, and that helped us identify the Buffalo Bills (+1 at home) as a potential upset winner over the Indianapolis Colts. Final score: Buffalo 27, Indianapolis 14.
The weather forecast for Week 2 doesn't look nearly as wet. According to the fine folks at Weather Underground (no, not that Weather Underground), there are only two games on the schedule where the forecast at press time calls for anything worse than partly cloudy skies. And the chance of rain in either of those games is a mere 15 percent. But let's not take any chances – when you're making NFL picks, 15 percent is massive.
Thursday: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN)
Isn't it always football weather in Tornado Alley? Not only might it rain over Kansas City, it could be a thunderstorm, too. The forecast also calls for 15-mph winds blowing from the south, which would be diagonally across Arrowhead Stadium. It's not the kind of weather you'd see in a Helen Hunt movie, but it's enough to alter the flight of a football.
The Broncos are used to playing in adverse weather conditions. Back when he was still a “dome quarterback” with the Colts, Peyton Manning's outdoor winning percentage used to decline with each passing month. That hasn't been a problem since he joined the Broncos in 2012. Besides, both these teams pride themselves on running and defense. A September drizzle shouldn't stop them. If anything, it might help relieve that 85-degree heat in the forecast. Yes, this is a night game.
Sunday: Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
This early-afternoon game, on the other hand, features a dome team in the Falcons heading to East Rutherford. However, there isn't much wind in the forecast, nor will it be quite as hot (high 70s) as it should be in Kansas City. The Giants also like their defense and running, but the Falcons are built mostly on the right arm of QB Matt Ryan; he's 47-19 SU when playing indoors, compared to 19-22 SU outdoors.
Both of the potential cloudbursts we're dealing with for Week 2 are expected to come and go pretty quickly. Looking at the long-range forecasts, the one in Kansas City might not materialize until Friday, but East Rutherford's storm is due to arrive on game day. Even then, it's likely to hold off until later in the afternoon. Keep this in mind when you're making your Week 2 football picks against the NFL odds, but don't obsess over it too much. Enjoy the weather while it's good.