Week 2 NFL Picks: Free Lock of the Week

Steve Merril - Steve@prosportsinfo.com

Friday, September 13, 2013 3:31 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 13, 2013 3:31 PM UTC

Miami will be on the road once again this week as they play at Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon. Both teams won their opening game with the Dolphins winning 23-10 at Cleveland and the Colts winning 21-17 at home over Oakland. 

The Dolphins got a workmanlike 23-10 win last week as they were in a defensive grinder with Cleveland. The Browns have a sneaky good defense this season so we’re willing to give Miami a pass for their minimal offensive production last week. The Dolphins were unable to run the ball (20 yards total), but there’s a high likelihood that Miami’s running game will get going this week.

Indianapolis’ defense was gouged on the ground by the Raiders. The Colts allowed 171 rushing yards on 33 carries. That’s a whopping 5.2 yards per rush so Miami’s running game should produce much better numbers in this game.

Check out David Lawrence's Free NFL Pick: Dolphins vs. Colts for another free play.

Not much is expected from the Dolphins this season after closing last season with 6 losses in their final 9 games to finish 7-9 on the year. It was Miami’s fourth straight losing season, but it was head coach Joe Philbin’s first season on the job and we considered it a successful year, especially since he started rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. Five of Miami’s nine losses came by 7 points or less so we expect the Dolphins to be a good team this season.

The Colts were out-played by the Raiders last Sunday and Indianapolis should have lost that game. They were out-yarded 372-274 by a bad Oakland team with a terrible offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback. That win and failed pointspread cover by the Colts came as no surprise, as we went against the overrated Colts with our NFL picks and took the Raiders plus the generous points in this spot last week.

We’ll go against the Colts once again this week for many of the same reasons. Indianapolis overachieved big time in 2012 when they went 11-5 SU and 11-5 ATS. The Colts were a phony playoff team as they were the only team to make the post-season with a negative point differential (-30). Nine of their eleven wins came by 7 points or less with six of those wins coming by 4 points or less. 

Indianapolis was way overvalued last week, and they are once again in this game against Miami. The Dolphins played at Indianapolis last season and they held a 17-13 halftime lead before the Colts rallied for a 23-20 win. Miami only converted on 1 of their 3 red zone trips in that game, but keep in mind, they were playing on the road with an inexperienced rookie quarterback. Ryan Tannehill now comes to Indianapolis with a full season under his belt and experience so the Dolphins will be able to capitalize on their scoring opportunities. 

Miami is now 7-2 ATS as a single digit underdog under head coach Philbin. They went 6-2 ATS in this role last season, and they won and covered as 2.5-point underdogs last week in Cleveland.

Indianapolis is now 0-1 ATS as a favorite; they went 5-1 ATS as a favorite last season. The Colts were favored by 4 points or less in every one of those games and they won all of the close games. While they won another close game last Sunday, the Colts are surviving on borrowed time. 

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The current NFL odds for this game ranges from the Colts -3 (+100) to the Colts -2.5 (-120) with a total of 43.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. 

We have these two teams rated equal in our power ratings, so the pointspread is right on after giving the Colts 3 points for home field advantage. However, we’ll continue to play against the Colts whenever they are laying points until they prove us wrong. We project Miami to have a better season than Indianapolis, and after the Colts poor defensive play against a bad Oakland team last week, we see another good opportunity to fade the overrated Colts. Be sure to shop and take the Dolphins +3 (-120) in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Free NFL Pick: DOLPHINS +3 -120

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