Week 2 NFL Picks: False Favorites & Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 9, 2014 6:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 9, 2014 6:38 PM UTC

Our new feature at SportsBookReview.com got off to a good start with a 2-1 record against the NFL odds. Once again I will look to identify false favorites or underdogs with sharp teeth for sports picks. 

Let’s delve into the Week 2 action with some working knowledge of the teams and look to ambush the sportsbooks lines with these NFL picks.


Dolphins vs. Bills: Sometimes you have to be Flexible
As an NFL football handicapper, sometime you have to go with the flow and what you know. Because of how early it is in the week, the line on Miami and Buffalo has already flipped once and IMO, it could well go back and forth more times for kickoff on Sunday.

With that in mind, Miami is the current favorite at -1.5 points and in truth has the better overall roster. What makes backing them difficult in this spot versus the betting odds is they are 1-3 ATS of late against the Bills and just 6-17 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Add in this is at the moment only the fourth time the Dolphins have been an AFC East away favorite in a decade and Buffalo is 30-14 ATS after a win by three or less points, utilizing Miami as a fave with NFL picks is nerve-wracking.

However, if the line shifts back to the original number of Buffalo favored, it is like MiO the liquid water enhancer, it changes everything. The Fins are 42-27 ATS since 2004 as road underdog and the Bills are 10-14 ATS handing out points at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Wait and find the underdog and feed him!

Underdog with Bite: Underdog in Miami

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Saints vs. Browns: New Orleans Handing Out Too Many Digits
Last month, all the reports out of the bayou were serving notice this was going to be the Saints best defense since Sean Payton began roaming the sidelines. With added depth in the defensive line, improved linebacker play and an above average secondary, especially at the safeties, New Orleans was considered a legit threat to Seattle to win the Super Bowl.

One week into the season, the Saints were toasted by Atlanta for 445 yards through the air (most ever allowed) and 558 yards all together, which was the second-most surrendered in team history.

While Cleveland is the not the offensive juggernaut the Falcons can be when healthy, the Browns put up 24 points at Pittsburgh once QB Brian Hoyer settled in the second half.

I am not forecasting a Cleveland upset, but with New Orleans 3-8 ATS in the second of two roadies, the Saints at -6 NFL odds looks generous.

NFL False Favorite: New Orleans

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Jets vs. Packers: Green Bay Might Not be Defensive Enough for Jets
The new and improved Packers defense was run over like road kill by Seattle, who had 207 yards on the ground. Next up is the New York Jets with their burly offensive line and a trio of running backs with various skills that can run at or around opposing teams.

The Jets pounded Oakland into submission for 202 rushing yards and Green Bay acknowledges the loss of B.J. Raji leaves them light in the middle of the defensive line.

With Rex Ryan’s squad 8-1 ATS after surpassing 200 yards rushing in previous outing and the Packers not having an immediate solution, the Pack at -8 feels like a lot of lumber to overcome.

NFL False Favorite: Green Bay at 5Dimes

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