Week 2 NFL Picks: Broncos Defense to Dominate vs. Chiefs

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 7:00 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 16, 2015 7:00 PM GMT

The Broncos & Chiefs collide in a pivotal AFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football in week 2 NFL betting. Find out where the value NFL picks are to be had.

Denver Broncos (1-0, 0-0 away)
The Denver Broncos are set to face off against divisional foes on Thursday Night Football, an AFC West showdown that is sure to carry title implications in the broad spectrum of the season. Peyton Manning and the Broncos have owned this rivalry in recent memory, winning six straight meetings. Yet, they enter week 2 NFL betting as the road underdogs, matched at +150 NFL odds to win outright and as the 3-point road underdogs against the spread, all while totals are set to a rather low 42-points, the lowest since December 20, 2012.

It’s not often that the Denver Broncos are at the disadvantage. Certainly, in a matchup that they’ve so utterly dominated as this one. So what gives? Do the bookies have it right?

The NFL betting outlook on this game has the whiff of dissent about it, a complete turnaround in perspective about the Broncos et al – but, arguably, Peyton Manning himself mainly –, the roots of which can be traced back to the tail end of the 2014 regular season when Manning seemed to fade. That notion was exacerbated by the manner of Broncos’ loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs, revived during the preseason behind lacklustre play of Manning, and then flagged as most concerning in week 1 when Manning went without a single touchdown pass in a 19-13 over the Ravens.

To be fair, Manning is working with a new coach in Gary Kubiak. It’s going to take time before he figures things out under the new scheme, which most diehard fans have no doubt will eventually happen. But it’s hard to ignore his stats in game 1, let alone compare them to the lofty standards he’d set in previous seasons.

The un-Peyton-like numbers in game 1 were as follows: 24-of-40 for 175 yards, no touchdowns and 1 interception. We could be churlish about his lone touchdown pass going to the opposing team, but we’re not going to be. Suffice it say, it wasn’t his best game at all. That said, the defense was superb and won the game for the Broncos. A win is a win, even if it is an ugly one is it not. Don’t expect the Broncos (or Manning for that matter) to apologise for it.   

Broncos vs. Chiefs Over / Under Pick

Broncos Player Props

Chiefs Player Props

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0, 0-0 home)
Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an opening win over the Houston Texans in week 1 NFL betting, a road win in which Alex Smith threw 3 touchdown passes to lift the Chiefs to the 27-20 win. So dominating were the Chiefs on both sides of the ball, Houston panicked. Giving Brian Hoyer the hook midway through the game and sent=ding in backup Ryan Mallet instead, but it was all a little too late as the Texans couldn’t recover ground.

The Chiefs’ win was an extension of their solid form that went back to the preseason. They finished with a perfect 4-0 record in the month of August, capping the best record in the league during the exhibition round. Often preseason has no bearing on the regular season, the results not entirely indicative of what NFL bettors can expect. In this case, it might prove otherwise as the Chiefs clearly are riding momentum. And if they can pull off their first win over Peyton Manning and the Broncos in three seasons, watch this space…..

As it is, the odds makers seem to be buying what the Chiefs are selling, sending them into this game as the decisive -170 favorites to win straight up and installing them as the 3-point home chalk. It’s worth mentioning though that in early NFL betting markets, the Broncos opened as the nominal 1.5-point favorites, only for the line to jump fence since the close of week 1 NFL betting action.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
The Denver Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five division games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday Night Football clashes. Denver boast a six-game winning streak over the Chiefs, which includes sweeping the series from 2012 to 2014. Those are just some of the many heady stats the Chiefs are faced with and that go against the NFL betting outlook on this game.

Do NFL bettors put their stock into stats and NFL betting trends of the past or do they take what they’ve seen over the last few weeks. Mainly the contrasting accounts of both teams in week 1 NFL betting?

Arrowhead can be an intimidating place. One need only to look back to last season when Tom Brady and the Patriots were crushed in the most gruesome way in Kansas City to understand just how unwelcoming and unyielding a place it is. As such, it’s reasonable to suggest the Chiefs could win this game and come through as the faves across sports betting platforms. Yet, we’re not making them our NFL pick. We like what we see but aren’t totally sold on them 100% after just one week of the regular season. Texans’ defense is formidable, but – let’s face it—their lack of a legitimate quarterback was always going to spell trouble for the offense.  

Similarly, we’re not ready to write off Peyton Manning and the Broncos, who let’s face it are amongst the top Super Bowl 50 NFL contenders this season. It’s just one game. A win, mind. And nobody will be shocked if the Broncos beat the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, upsetting the NFL odds in the process. Whichever way you slice this game, we feel the value is with the Broncos on our NFL picks.

NFL Free Picks: Broncos +150 to win outright and +3.0 (+100) to cover at Bet365

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