UPDATED: NFL Week 17 Parlay Picks

Playoff berths are on the line in Week 17 with only four of eight division titles secured. We take an early look at three of the NFL's most important Week 17 matchups with our parlay picks.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have secured their respective division crowns. Our Week 17 NFL parlay picks feature two AFC teams still vying for the top spot in their division in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are underdogs this week, while the Bills are huge favorites.

Here’s a look at my top parlay picks based on early lines for the NFL's Week 17 slate (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Week 17 NFL Parlay Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 (-110) vs. New York Jets ???Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-110) ????Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans ????

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 17 Betting Odds, Lines, and Picks

Week 17 NFL Parlay Predictions

Buccaneers -13 (-110)

Tampa Bay buried Carolina 32-6, behind seven sacks and an interception by the Buccaneers defense in Week 16. Despite missing several key offensive players, quarterback Tom Brady maintained the Buccaneers' quick offensive pace and found efficiency with new weapons. The Tampa Bay ground game totaled 159 yards and two touchdowns on a robust 5.1 yards per carry. With both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out, veteran wideout Antonio Brown returned with a dominant 10-reception, 101-yard performance.

There is simply no reason why Tampa Bay would not be able to move the ball effectively against the Jets. The Buccaneers are the second-most overall efficient team in the NFL, with the top overall offense, per KenPom. Their defense, which has been strong against the run all season, has recently climbed to fourth-best overall against the pass. The Buccaneers should put pressure on Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson all day, averaging the second-most (2.9 ) sacks per game in the league.

The Jets rank dead-last in overall defensive efficiency including last against the pass. That is a devastating combination against Brady, even without a few offensive weapons. New York's pass rush has also recently faltered, averaging just 1.7 sacks per game in the past three contests. They will find much resistance against a Tampa Bay offensive line that ranks first in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed.

I'm laying the big number with a Tampa Bay team that is fighting for the second overall seed in the playoffs.

Bills -14.5 (-110)

They simply cannot make this line high enough. 

The Falcons are the worst team in the NFL by team DVOA. They're 28th in offensive DVOA and 31st in defensive DVOA. Their 7-8 record is extremely misleading.

Their recent wins have been over a depleted Detroit Lions team at home with Tim Boyle at quarterback, at the Carolina Panthers with Cam Newton and P.J. Walker under center, and at the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Atlanta now travels to Buffalo to face a Bills team coming off a fantastic road win against the AFC East-rival New England Patriots. 

Buffalo's passing attack didn't slow down with the absence of receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis due to COVID-19 protocols. Both Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie caught touchdown passes, with quarterback Josh Allen finishing as the overall fantasy QB3 for the week. Allen now has 13 touchdown passes over his last five games. 

Atlanta’s defense produces almost no pressure on the opposing quarterback, with just one sack over the last four games. The Falcons also have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, despite not facing the most mobile group of signal-callers. 

This game has huge ramifications for Buffalo, which has seized control of the AFC East. If the Bills win the next two games, they will be defending division champions.

Each of Atlanta’s last four losses was by 13 or more points. I haven’t seen Atlanta play well against a quality opponent since its Week 9 win at the New Orleans Saints. Even in that game, the opposing quarterback was Trevor Siemian.

In a Week 17 road matchup in Buffalo, against an elite defense and quarterback, I'll lay this large number with the Bills.

Dolphins +3.5 (-110)

It’s clear that most bettors don’t believe in Miami. Sixty-five percent of the bets and a whopping 92% of the money is on the Titans to end the Dolphins' seven-game winning streak. 

I’m going in the other direction. 

The Dolphins defense is now one of the NFL’s best. Over their last three games, the Dolphins have averaged an astounding 5.7 sacks per game. Miami's overall team DVOA is now just behind Tennessee, which found a way to steal a win last week against the San Francisco 49ers despite being thoroughly outplayed in the first half. 

The Dolphins actually have more weapons than the Titans on offense, with rookie wideout Jaylen Waddle and veteran DeVante Parker. Waddle’s 96 receptions place him right behind Anquan Boldin (101 catches) for the all-time rookie record. Add in tight end Mike Gesicki, and the Dolphins have versatile receiving options for superbly accurate quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who leads the league with a 70.1 completion percentage.

The Dolphins defense has improved to eighth overall by DVOA and is sixth-best against the pass. Tennessee announced on Monday that wide receiver Julio Jones, defensive back Buster Skrine, outside linebacker Bud Dupree, and receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine were all placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. This current Titans roster does not accurately reflect a 10-5 record built on the back of running back Derrick Henry. 

This is another game that I love grabbing at 3.5 points to cover the field goal loss. I’ll go against the gambling world and believe in the Dolphins to keep their streak alive against the Titans.

Combined odds: Buccaneers -13 (-110) + Bills -14.5 (-110) + Dolphins +3.5 (-110) = +595

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NFL parlay picks made 1/1/2022 at 2:27 p.m. ET