Week 17 NFL Picks: Stotts's Four-Team Parlay Offers Top Action

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, December 29, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

Join us as we analyze the best matchups for Week 17 in the NFL Regular Season and find out which ones go better together in a parlay to get the most value out of our NFL picks.

NFL Week 17 usually isn’t the best week to try to incorporate Logic and Repetition into one’s handicap as teams are usually already out or already in the Playoffs and often have little motivation, play second- and third-stringers in some cases and often try not to get key players injured before the Playoffs. So how to approach? Maybe look for those with something to play for and incorporate a couple of solid Trends against the dogs of the AFC South and then pray? Here is a 4-team parlay for Sunday that seems to make some sense from a distance, so time to take a long walk and throw another $20 on the NFL.


Introduction: Time For One Last Walk Up The Broken Road in 2015...
Our little walk up the Boulevard on our last Parlay Ticket (Accumulator) assignment ended up being a profitable one, and like most Parlays that accidentally end up going back to the betting window, a little Luck and a little Smarts combined to turn $20 into some more money to eventually lose in the Near Future or some quick Angst. Who knows. And this time, because the Jets were only giving 3 points at the time and because it was one of two weekend’s when the Sportsbooks were crushed as a wave of NFL favorites came in, the story had a happy ending and there are now multiple $20’s in front of me to order a Broadway pizza and some chicken pasta soup and garlic knots if desired. And if New York was giving up 3½ points at that particular casino at that particular point in time—it was lined -3 -120 if I remember correctly—then woe is me and hello, McDonald’s, and all of that other stupid stuff we say when things aren’t going our way. (Only kidding, no McDonald’s shall penetrate these walls anymore.) Nonetheless, the Parlay came through thanks to the Patriots and Packers and Seahawks (in Week 15)—those Usual Suspects—who in Week 16 were reminded us all that they are also all “just another football team” as those aforementioned Jets, the Cardinals and the Rams respectively beat them all up and beat them all up real good. Pulp-like. Many pieces of Humble Pie were served on Sunday and superstar QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson were all eating.

So, two weeks later, and for games that will played in a different calendar year (2016), one last jaunt up Decatur for another 4-team NFL Parlay, or whatever we can scrape up here in The Lab, Bubba, because, as you know, some teams care and some teams don’t in Week 17. And the last thing you want is to lose a bleeding 4-teamer because someone didn’t give a Rat’s Ass about playing. It’s hard enough to try to win when you know they’re playing for something and it’s safe to say that the jobs of Jimmy Vaccaro (South Point), Jay Kornegay (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and all of the other sportsbook directors here in Sin City and around the globe are safe after having just 2 bad weeks out of the 17 (so far).

And whereas NFL team only get 16 games in the Regular Season to earn a coveted Playoff berth, the sportsbooks all get 17 NFL weeks with which to work grinding out profits, week-after-week as the beast that is American Professional Football Betting continues to grow. No rest for the wicked, eh? This industry somewhat reminds me of my adopted pet Main Coon cat—Sir Louie Smudge—in that it (he) keeps growing despite the fact I thought long ago there was no way he could get any bigger. He’s now pretty much a little Lynx and last night, he actually called and made dinner arrangements at a pricey Italian joint—despite having no money or credit cards—so I promptly put him outside like Fred Flintstone did with his big-ass Cat. I will truly be in trouble the day Señor Smudge is big enough to put my big ass outside after I’ve put him out like Fred Flintstone’s did. So if you see ever see any underdog-laden parlays coming from this space, please call the proper authorities. Anyway, with In-Game Wagering and the NFL growing worldwide and more outlets than ever, wagering on the NFL is thriving and it’s hard to imagine the sportsbooks ever really (annually) getting the worst of it. On to the parlay...


Sunday, January 3, 2016—Project Start 2016 With a Big Bang (or Small White Piece of Paper) : NFL 4-Team Parlay
Yes, Ladies and Germs, the time has come to ring out the old and ring in the new, so let’s try to start off where we ended 2015—with a Winner. And the seldom talked about key to winning Parlays (Accumulators in the UK) is trying to avoid having a Losing element by whatever means it takes (buying the ½, taking on the Money Line, eliminating altogether). Like the winning parlay we wrote about last time out, starting off with the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! seems like the right thing to do. Why? Getting the New York Jets (10-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at (minus) 3 or less (still 2½’s in market on Monday afternoon) against the Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Rich Stadium in Buffalo here seems like a wise start for this Week 17 NFL 4-teamer as Buffalo has L4 of its 6 SU and if the Jets win, they’re in (the AFC Playoffs as a Wild Card entrant). In Week 10 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford when these two met earlier this year, the Bills won outright as 2½-point underdogs, 22-17, and Buffalo and QB Tyrod Taylor are 5-1 ATS the L6 against New York as Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two picks. Expect Jets WRs Brandon Marshall (101 receptions, 1,376 yards, 13 TDs, 13.6 ypc) and Eric Decker (75 receptions, 977 yards, 13 TDs, 13.0 ypc) to be the difference here and taking this leg on the Money Line (-154, Bwin) may be better for some who fear New York AFC could end up winning by 1 or

When a team controls its own destiny, it should win. And New York AFC is pretty good. Way better than New York NFC it seems as Defense seems to matter in pro sports.

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The 2nd leg of this parlay has to be taking the Saints-Falcons Over (52, 5Dimes) the Total in this meaningless Week 17 NFC South game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Why? The site (Georgia Dome in Atlanta) means perfect, 72°, mall-like temperatures and a predictable fast-track playing surface (FieldTurf Classic HD) and the Situation with Falcons WR Julio Jones (127 receptions) just 16 catches away from tying the Colts Marvin Harrison all-time Record (143) set in 2002 which means Falcons QB Ryan should target Jones maybe up to 18 times in an effort to get near or break the record. When these two teams met earlier this season in Week 6, 52 points were scored as New Orleans and QB Drew Brees burst Atlanta’s bubble, winning outright, 31-21 as 3-point underdogs in The Big Easy, and with nothing to lose, two gunslingers and a quick pace set by this theoretical passing surge to Georgia product Jones, the Over is the call but even if there is a ½ on a 52, best to buy it to avoid losing by a hook.

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The 3rd Leg is a Jacksonville Jaguars (18-27-3 ATS its L48, 40%) fade and a play on the Houston Texans who are awaiting word on the Concussion Protocol status of starting QB Brian Hoyer. And if Hoyer can’t go on Sunday against the lowly Jaguars in Houston in this Week 17 AFC South date from the Lone Star State, then we’ll get Oklahoma State product Brandon Weeden, who is a much better Brandon Weeden on the Texans than the Brandon Weeden of the Cowboys variety. For those (all) of us who were mocking Weeden in October and November, let it be known that Brandon Weeden is going to Playoffs and Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, Drew Brees and Jay Cutler aren’t. Although the Jaguars are 4-2 ATS the L6 in this series and 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Houston, including a cover last year in Week 17 getting 9 points as an underdog in a 23-17 loss, backing the Momentum- and Playoff-driven Texans and JJ Watt who are feeling real good about themselves and thrashed the Titans, 34-6 in Week 16. Houston should win this one by around by 20 no matter who’s QB.

And the 4th leg? No Andrew Luck? OK. No Matt Hasselbeck? Whoa. No Charlie Whitehurst (Hamstring, Injured Reserve List)? What? Houston, we have a problem. And that problem for the Indianapolis Colts is that they may have to go with a QB who has never played a down in the NFL—Miami (Florida) product Stephen Morris—or maybe even sign Free Agent Josh Freeman to help try to get the Win in Week 17 at Lucas Oil Stadium against the Tennessee Titans (18-45 SU L3 seasons). Indianapolis (6-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) only needs 10 different things to happen—now only nine after the Broncos beat the Bengals on MNF—so Head Coach Chuck Pagano and the Colts chances of playing in the Postseason are about the same as Rand Paul’s of getting to the White House in the 2016 US Presidential Election. Whatever’s less than slim and none. Anyway, this selection is more of a Titans fade then an Indianapolis backing and with the game at Home and the colts being so dominant in the AFC South through the years, it’s almost like Reflex Action just to get a ‘W’ against Tennessee  (3-12 SU, 4-10-1 ATS).When these two AFC South teams met earlier this season in Opryland, the Colts sang their hearts out  in a 35-33 Win but failed to cover ATS as 3-point chalks. Trend-wise, the Colts are an sparkly 7-0-1 ATS the L8 against Tennessee and Indianapolis is 5-1-1 ATS the L7 here at Home at Lucas Oil Stadium and with the Titans now 2-14-3 ATS their L19 against teams with a Losing record and 8-25-3 ATS their L35 overall (24.2%), leaving the Colts off in this spot seems foolish.
Although the Colts and Texans games don’t have lines up in some sportsbooks (Tuesday), Offshore operator sportsbook.ag currently has Point Spreads and Totals on all four but the Saints-Falcons Total is at 52 (Under +) there so remember to chop off that crooked hook (½) off the Total as nobody wants a parlay runied by stepping on a thumbtack. Good luck.

NFL Week 17 4-Team Parlay: New York Jets -3 -115/Saints-Falcons Over 52½ (Buy ½)/Houston Texans -6/Indianapolis Colts -6 (Sportsbook.ag)

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