Week 17 Betting Trends & Angles You Need To Know

Marshall Yanda Ravens

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 26, 2017 2:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017 2:02 PM UTC

Our Week 17 NFL situational trends and angles are chock-full of playoff-clinching scenarios. Check out why the betting market is asking too much of the Ravens hosting the Bengals, the Bills offense is in no shape to secure a postseason bid in Miami, Philip Rivers and the Chargers need public confidence versus the Raiders, and the Redskins and Giants will offer finale fireworks.

Ravens Flightless As Heavy Home Chalk

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The Ravens have a lot to play for in Week 17. They can either lock up the first AFC Wild Card spot, or miss the postseason altogether depending on the Chargers, Bills, and Titans results. First, Baltimore has to beat division rival Cincinnati. Oddsmakers expect them to do that, opening the Ravens 9.5-point favorites. Many of these best online sports books moved the number to -10.5 in early trading.

Is the betting market asking too much? In the last 8 years, the Ravens are 4-13 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. They put up 22.8 points per game in this spot, 0.1 more then the NFL average in this span. That is typically not enough production in the modern game to separate from most teams, especially when asked to cover double digits. The ‘under’ proves as lucrative, also going 4-13 overall. A 36.3 final score is staying 5.0 points below a 41.3 average total. The Ravens currently accrue just 4.7 yards per play, 31st in the NFL.

Bills Offense Limps into Miami for Finale

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The Bills (8-7 SU) have a shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They have to win and need at least a pair of losses in the Chargers, Titans, and Ravens tilts. Past Week 17 trends suggest coming out of Miami victorious is a coin-flip, especially with Buffalo’s anemic offense. In the second half of the season, the Bills average 15.9 points per game.

Buffalo’s offense played particularly bad in a 37-16 defeat at the Patriots last Sunday, failing to find the end zone once. Its lone touchdown was a 19-yard pick-6 by free safety Jordan Poyer. Momentum is missing, which is bad news. Teams entering Week 17 as road favorites scoring fewer than 20 points last time out are 12-23 ATS since 1989. In this span, any NFL teams failing to score an offensive touchdown the previous game are 3-16 SU in road finales. The Packers, Cowboys, and Browns fall under this umbrella, too.

Redskins, Giants Poised For Shootout?

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The ‘over/under’ for the meaningless Redskins-Giants clash opened at 39 points, trending down to 38 in early wagering. That’s really low for a Washington game, particularly against a division rival. With Kirk Cousins under center, the ‘over’ is 9-1 when the Skins take to the road against NFC East foes. A 54.1 average final score soars over a 47.2 total.

Washington is pass-happy in this spot, going to the air 40.5 times per game. It averages 25.3 points. For those thinking the Giants offense will continue their struggles, the Redskins have surrendered 20 points or more in every game; yielding 28.8 per contest.

Cousins’ playing status is unknown, but Washington will likely squeeze one more effort out of the pending free agent. The six-year pro is hot, too. Cousins, down seven starters on offense, tossed for 299 yards and three scores against the Broncos and their No. 2 pass defense last week.

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@Arquimedesfern1 #HTTR "You Like That" 😂 Kirk Cousins si merece su contrato. Ya sea que se lo den los #HTTR o los #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/xA5TWNDKoT

— Christopher Gonzalez (@Christopher_ngt) November 19, 2017
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Monitor Chargers-Raiders Line

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The Chargers can sneak into the playoffs under this Week 17 scenario: they need to beat the Raiders and root for a Titans loss or tie. Oddsmakers opened L.A. a touchdown favorite over Oakland. Monitor this line. Quarterback Philip Rivers is just 3-13 SU and ATS as a home favorite laying 7 points or fewer against division rivals. The Chargers muster just 17.6 points per game under these conditions with 1.9 turnovers. With the half point or more, Rivers’ record improves to 18-4 SU and 11-11 ATS overall.

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