For one of the final times for the 2013 NFL regular season, I’m releasing my two free NFL Picks from Bet365’s prop selection. Make sure you also check out my player props coming out Sunday, but for now, I have two team props that I feel have some great value.
Dolphins TD Total
At Bet365, there are several ways to bet team touchdown totals, and one of my favorites is the 2-way TD prop. At 2.5 touchdowns, an over bet has a price of +100, and I’m very surprised this price is at even money. It seems way too good to be true for a Dolphins team playing against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. As long as the weather does not affect the Dolphins on the road in Buffalo this week, I see the over being the play.
The Bills’ passing defense is their main area of weakness, and I expect the Dolphins to be able to pass as much as they want. The weather is calling for some rain, however the wind doesn’t seem to be much of an issue, and the forecast also looks like it might clear up some before kickoff. Either way, the Dolphins have been playing well recently, scoring seven touchdowns in their last two games, and nine in their last three.
The Bills’ defense has subsequently given up nine touchdowns in their last three games, and I think we can expect the Dolphins’ offense to keep the averages going. Take the over.
My Pick: Dolphins ‘Over’ 2.5 Touchdowns (+100)
3 Unanswered Scores
There aren’t many games on the schedule that I would recommend for this prop, however there is one this week that catches my eye. The Ravens and Patriots are playing in Baltimore this week, and the total is set at 45, with the Ravens coming in as -2 NFL Odds favorite. This game should be close, and without Rob Gronkowski for the Patriots, the New England offense is down to a grind.
I don’t see either one of these teams scoring three unanswered times, and the price of +175 for a ‘No’ at Bet365 seems like plenty of value. Both of these defenses have been playing well recently and this season, and this late in the year, I could easily see the game remaining a one possession contest throughout its' duration.
The total of 45 is deceiving, and if indeed this is a lower scoring game, it plays right into the value of this prop. The Patriots’ defense has given up three unanswered scores only three times this season, and one of those was to the Broncos. The Ravens’ defense has only given up three unanswered scores twice in their last eight games, and one of those games was the contest with the Vikings in Week 14, which they won.
My point is that these are two very evenly matched teams right now, and I see a much more defensive than offensive battle between these two conference rivals. The price is absolutely ripe with value, and I am taking a conservative shot at it.
My Pick: Patriots vs. Ravens ‘No’ 3 Unanswered Scores (+175)