Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
If You Must Bet: Over
Best Line Offered: Bookmaker
It’s a pretty safe bet that the Indianapolis Colts, under a resurgent Andrew Luck, are the better team in this matchup. It would be fair to say that if the Giants were to win this one on the road it would qualify as a pretty big upset. Not the biggest stunner we’ve seen this season but one that would set Giants Nation ablaze with optimism for next season. However, the Colts understand that they, unlike the Giants, still have much to play for and a loss to a subpar team is not in the cards.
However, there has been a substantial overreaction to this case of the haves and the have-nots. When the oddsmakers feel that a winning team, in a certain spot, against a struggling team will attract plenty of public money then they jack the line because perception is their reality. But what the public is not considering is the spot in which the Colts find themselves in Week 16. Indianapolis is coming off of an impressive 23-0 shutout of the Dallas Cowboys and could very well be overlooking the team visiting this week because they may be too concerned about the divisional foe from Tennessee, they will be playing next week. It’s called a trap game and all the boxes are checked for Indy to have at least a little letdown.
But the issue here is that the Giants may not be able to take advantage and if they fall behind early then Eli Manning will start heaving the ball which will lead to turnovers, and not the warm, flaky kind fresh from the oven. No, I’m talking about the soul-crushing, bile inducing panic that will fill every bettor who backed the Giants in their NFL picks this week. Yes, the Giants could lose by double-digits or cover the number rather easily against a semi-engaged team looking ahead to next week. In other words, stay away from the side and let’s get down on the total.
The Colts will score their share of points against a truly suspect Giants’ secondary. In addition, Luck should have ample protection this week as center Ryan Kelly is back from injury. If the Giants key too much on the pass then Indianapolis can shift its game plan to the rush where Marlon Mack had a superb outing last week and will be looking to build upon that effort this week against a porous New York run-stop unit. Either way, the Colts will ring up points and that’s a very good base on which to build if over is your thing.
But let’s not discount the Giants. OBJ may very well be back in uniform and Saquon Barkley is a multidimensional force that will give the Colts’ defense much to consider. Let’s not forget the Giants are coming off a humiliating 17-0 loss to the Titans, at home no less. Indy is allowing a click over 21 points per game and we see the Giants getting at least that much while the Colts will get that and then some. That all adds up to a lofty number one that is above the prevailing total being reflected by the NFL odds board. Go over in this one.
Final Score: Colts 35 Giants 27