For one of the final times this season, I’m back with more of my winning NFL prop picks from bet365 sportsbook. The final Thursday Night Football game of the season should be a good one, and I think I have found three good values from bet365 to make you some extra Christmas money tonight!
Latavius Murray O/U 80.5 Rushing Yards
Latavius Murray burst onto the scene late last season and his first full year as the bell cow running back for the Raiders has gone pretty well. He has been effective and ineffective at times, but in the games where he didn’t perform, most of the time the Raiders were playing a very good rushing defense. This week, against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, Murray should once again shine at home, and with the possibility of the Raiders getting up big and running out the clock in the 4th, I like Murray to go over his yards total this week. In their first meeting with one another, Murray ran for 85 rushing yards against the Chargers on only 15 carries, and with his volume going up later in the season, I see him getting close to, if not more than 20 carries in this contest. It’s somewhat of a risk if the Raiders happen to get down early and are forced to throw the ball, but I have a nice hedge NFL pick for those concerns, and as -5.5 home favorites on the NFL odds board, that game script is probably not too much of a concern.
NFL Pick: OVER 80.5 (-125)
Derek Carr O/U 270.5 Passing Yards
Speaking of hedging on our rushing yards prop with Murray some, Derek Carr has an over/under of 270.5 passing yards on the short week, and if Murray isn’t the one moving the ball against this sub par Chargers defense, it’s going to be Carr slinging the ball all over the field. While its not normally a good idea to take the over with the quarterback and running back that’s on the same team in the same game, I think there is room in this game for both of these guys, or at the very least one of them to go over their total. Carr this season has been very good and is looking like one of the elite quarterbacks of the future. At home this season, if you take away his dud performance against the Bengals in Week 1 where he got knocked out of the game for a bit, Carr is averaging 299 passing yards per game at home this season, and the Chargers’ defense is not going to hold him down enough to keep him off the pace to throw for close to that many yards again this week.
NFL Pick: OVER 270.5 (-120) at bet365
Antonio Gates TD Scored
This may be the last season of the Chargers in Qualcomm Stadium, and it may be the last season of Antonio Gates altogether. The veteran tight end has still been effective this season, but he has also spent some time injured as well. However, even though he missed the first meeting between these two teams, he is ready to go this week, and the odds of him getting into the end zone for the first time in a while are very good. The Raiders’ defense has been awful against tight ends all season, and while a lot of the production came in Week 1 against the Bengals and Tyler Eifert, Gates is talented enough to get through the Raiders’ defense. On the year, Oakland has given up 11 touchdowns to tight ends, which is tied with the Lions for the most in the NFL this season.
NFL Pick: TD Scored (+110)