Week 16 NFL Picks: Betting Trends Suggest That Bills Will Cover -6 vs. Cowboys

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 11:24 PM GMT

Disappointment is the operative word for both of these clubs as Dallas prepares to travel to Buffalo to meet the Bills in a game that will have no playoff implications. Yet, it is still an opportunity to cash in our NFL picks so let’s analyze this one.

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NFL Pick: Bills -6

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Dallas Cowboys (4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS)
Dallas has lost three of their last four and failed to cover the NFL odds in five of their last seven. Last week they hosted the Jets and saw any far-flung hopes of winning the woeful NFC East evaporate with their 19-16 loss to New York. Injuries have decimated this team that was supposed to contend not only for the divisional title but an NFC championship.

Tony Romo has broken his collar bone twice this season and his absence has tremendously affected the Cowboys. Matt Cassel may have seen his last game in a Dallas uniform after two series of ineptitude last week forced head coach Jason Garrett to yank him and send in a quarterback who hadn’t played a snap in anger in four years. The immortal Kellen Moore was tapped the rest of the way and despite three interceptions was able to launch a TD strike to Dez Bryant and end the first half with a 10-9 advantage. However, the Jets rallied and ultimately wound up on top sending the Dallas faithful home, disappointed yet again.

The Cowboys’ offense has been invisible this season scoring a mere 17.6 points per game (30th) and passing for only 205.2 yards per game on average which ranks them 29th in the league of 32. Defensively they are surrendering 23.1 points per contest which puts them in the middle of the NFL pack. Jason Garrett has already given Kellen Moore the starting assignment against Buffalo this week.

 

Buffalo Bills (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)
Rex Ryan was brought in as a firebrand of sorts to signal a new era in Buffalo Bills football by a brand new owner with a whole new attitude. Excitement was in the air as football was suddenly cool again in upstate New York and expectations reached a fever pitch headed into Week 1 of the 2015 season. Fast forward to today and those lofty expectations have dissipated into another ho-hum season of underwhelming football.

Defensively the Bills were among the best in 2014 holding opponents to an average of 18.1 points per game (4th) and were expected to maintain or improve upon that impressive mark with defensive guru Rex Ryan at the helm. However all the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry and the Bills head into Week 16 with the 17th ranked defense in terms of points allowed averaging 24 points per game. Linebacker Preston Brown made some controversial remarks that may explain, at least partially, why Buffalo has fallen so far from defensive grace.

"[Opposing offenses] run people in and off because they know we're having issues with that upstairs in the box," Brown said, expressing frustration that defensive calls are often delayed from the coach’s box which puts the Bills’ defense at a huge disadvantage.

 

Betting Analysis
Neither the Cowboys nor the Bills have been particularly kind to those who have backed them in their NFL picks over the course of the last four weeks with a combined 25 percent ATS mark during those eight games. But we must choose a side and for this one we will side with the home team as the Bills are healthier and far more capable of generating points than the hapless Dallas Cowboys.

Here are just a few stats to consider:

  • True home teams are 26-15 ATS in the last 41 Bills games.

  • Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.

  • Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 16.

  • Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.