Week 16 NFL Picks: Betting Trends & Games That Apply

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 9:13 PM GMT

Here’s an in-depth look at the NFL odds board trading for Week 16, spotting meaningful line moves and odds in order to determine spreads to wait on, spreads to bet now and where public fades are best.

Week 16 Preview
At the close of Sunday’s round of action, odds makers went to press with the coming week’s opening NFL odds

Table 1 compares last week’s Advanced Lines from Westgate LV Superbook to the opening odds for week 16. As well, the table looks at how those lines are currently trading and where consensus betting falls.

 

 

Top Early Consensus Bets Week 16
According to SBR Consensus betting reports, the top consensus bet in week 16 are the New England Patriots, closely followed by the Carolina Panthers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

NE Patriots        66.77%

CAR Panthers     65.36%

PIT Steelers        64.35%

WAS Redskins    63.85%

OAK Raiders       61.05%

DEN Broncos      59.69%

 

Spread To Bet Now: Browns vs. Chiefs -12.5
Surprisingly, the Chiefs, one of the best teams against the spread in the last eight weeks, aren’t topping the list of the Top 6 consensus bets in week 16. As table 1 above indicates, they are barely taking in 50% of spread tickets at early doors. That probably has something to do with the double-digit spread that is putting off most square bettors.

Still, the Chiefs have won eight straight and covered seven of those games. The Browns, meanwhile, are the worst in the league with a 3-11 SU mark that includes a 9.6-point losing streak and a negative 5.3-point differential against the spread. They are 5-9 ATS, which includes a 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games. As it is, the Chiefs are still have the edge in spread tickets coming down the wire and the total money risked at 66.71%. If you fancy the Chiefs as the 12.5-point favorites, this is an NFL betting line that you should probably bet now with your NFL picks before it’s bet up higher.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -12 (-110) BetOnline

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Public Fade: Raiders -6
Does the public have it right? As it is, the Oakland Raiders are amongst the top consensus bets in week 16 with more than 60.% of spread tickets and a whopping 90.60% of the money. The public is clearly all over the Raiders, as well as sharp bettors considering the overwhelming money riding on the Raiders.

The Raiders, who are coming off a loss in week 15, have gone 2-4 ATS in their last six games. The only covers came when they beat the Titans and Broncos on the road during this run of form. Chargers, by comparison, strike an unconvincing pose with a 4-10 SU record but they are 6-8 ATS with a 4.9-point losing margin and a negative 3-point differential against the spread. They beat Miami 30-14 in week 15 and they’ll be looking to level the series with the Raiders when they descend on the Coliseum. The Chargers have covered three of their last four games.

NFL Picks: Chargers +6 (-107) 5Dimes

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Spread To Wait On: Giants vs. Vikings
The Giants and Vikings collide in a pivotal clash on Sunday Night Football, with the odds makers holding the game off the board at early doors. Odell Beckham Jr. was handed a suspension for conduct unbecoming in week 15’s loss to the Panthers. As soon as word of the suspension was released, odds makers went to press with the Vikings as the touchdown faves at home, a rather generous stance given the Vikings haven’t exactly blown that many teams off the field over the course of the season. As Beckham appeals the decision and early bettors weigh in this line is sure to hop around, making it best to wait on until things settle and become clearer.

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