Week 16 NFL Picks: Bet Jets +3.5 vs. Ailing Patriots

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, December 22, 2015 8:21 PM GMT

The Patriots have captured a first round bye but are gunning for home field advantage throughout the playoffs while their hosts, the Jets, are contending for a wild card spot. Let's see what the NFL odds makers are hanging on this AFC East clash.

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NFL Pick: Jets +3.5

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

New England Patriots (12-2 SU, 7-4-3 ATS)
The Patriots continue to reel of victories despite a trainer's room that more closely resembles a MASH unit. Injuries have been plaguing New England since early on when scat-back Dion Lewis got derailed for the season with a torn ACL which was just the beginning of a parade of pain that swept through the Patriots locker room like typhus. Julien Edelman is currently rehabbing from a foot injury and fellow slot receiver Danny Amendola got banged up last week as well.

That barely scratches the surface when you consider that starters LeGarrette Blount, Nate Solder, Dominic Easley, James Devlin are all done for the season while key contributors like Aaron Dobson, Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork, Scott Chandler, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Jonathan Freeny are either on injured reserve or battling one condition or another. Oh, and if you did not know All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski just returned after a short absence due to various bangs and bruises.

Yet the Evil Genius Bill Belichick has weathered the storm with his "next man up" mentality and has already captured his seventh consecutive AFC East title with a guaranteed a first round bye already in the bag courtesy of his team's 12-2 record. But Belichick isn't inclined to rest his starters much to the chagrin of an ever fearful Patriots Nation. The Pats want home field advantage throughout the postseason and in order to make that happen they need one more win. They hope to get it this week in New York and rest the walking wounded in the final week of the season against Miami.

 

New York Jets (9-5 SU, 6-5-3 ATS)
The Jets have turned on the turbo-boosters at the right time winning four consecutive games as the season takes its final turn into the homestretch. And if you are sharp enough to shop diligently for your NFL odds then you could have been betting New York over the last four weeks and watched them cover on each and every occasion in your NFL picks. According to the average lines that were being offered on the Jets they pushed with the Giants as three-point favorites in their 23-20 win three weeks ago and pushed last week against the Cowboys last week as three-point favorites yet again in their 19-16 victory in Dallas. However, there were offshores offering the Jets at -2 ½ if you had the patience to sort through and find it.

Four weeks ago their chances were slight of getting their ticket punched into the postseason but now they must keep on winning if they are to have any chance of copping a playoff berth. Week 16 presents an enormous challenge with their divisional nemesis coming to town seeking to derail their playoff aspirations. The Jets are holding opponents to a more than respectable 19.4 points per game (tied for 8th) while their offense is averaging 24.6 PPG (11th). Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick has found a home in Gotham leading the 10th ranked passing attack averaging 256.7 yards per game.

 

Betting Analysis
The Jets need this one much more than the Patriots do and though Bill Belichick is as stubborn as a rented mule he does understand that his team will get another bite at the apple to gain home field advantage throughout against a much less daunting foe next week when they take on the Dolphins. Former All-Pro Steven Jackson has been granted an opportunity to revive his career in New England but if he does play he won't be in football shape having sat out for the entire 2015 campaign which leaves the team vulnerable at that position.

The last five times these teams have played the average margin of victory was a click over three points per game. The biggest winning margin came in their contest earlier this season when the Pats, favored by seven at home and relatively healthy at the time, won 30-23. This is a terrific spot for the Jets against an ailing Patriots squad that doesn't have nearly as much to play for as New York and always has a difficult time against them.