Week 16 False Favorites (Titans) & Top Dogs (Broncos)

Tennessee Titans players in field

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 6:02 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2016 6:02 PM GMT

It's Christmas time, and for those betting NFL football there are a lot of distractions and you are being pulled in multiple directions -- yet still trying to find time to handicap games for Week 16. We are here to help. 

For the season, I am 23-20-2 ATS after a fast start. I went to one my favorite books, A-rated Intertops, where they have great first-time bonus sign-ups to dissect the NFL odds and this is why I like this week for NFL picks.

 

False Favorites: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is fighting to win division title with Houston, which the Titans will host next week. The Titans had a clutch come-from-behind victory last week in Kansas City and are feeling good about themselves. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is in the midst of another lost season with another new coaching regime coming in next season. With this combo pack, the Titans have been pushed from -3.5 to -5, and given Blake Bortles penchant for mistakes it's hard to find fault. However, at this adjusted price let's consider Tennessee is 2-13 ATS on NFL odds in its past division games and 0-6 ATS off an upset win -- making this too many points.

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False Total: Miami At Buffalo

Despite three straight 'Overs' in this series and the two combatants a combined 21-7 'Over' this season, the total has crumbled from 44 to 42. Right now, I don't know the expected weather for Saturday, but as we have seen the last couple weeks, colder or inclement weather does not guarantee a low-scoring affair. Buffalo is a hard team to bet against the spread this season, but at home the Bills have scored, not played great defense and are 7-0 'Over.' In digging up more numbers, I find Miami is 6-0 'Over' on the road after rushing for 75 or fewer yards in the previous game, which all leads to an 'Over' play and false total.

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Top Dogs: Denver Broncos

So the Denver defense is none too pleased with the Broncos offense as there was a reported locker-room issue following Sunday's loss to the Patriots between members of the secondary and offensive line. That unhappiness is understandable given the Denver offense has averaged 11 points per game in the last three outings and the Broncos are in serious danger of not defending their Super Bowl title. Nonetheless, Kansas City is hardly an offensive juggernaut, and Alex Smith continues to turn the ball over in the red zone. With the Chiefs at -4, let's not lose sight of the visitor on a 6-0 ATS run with five wins. Denver fights to the end as top dog!

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