Week 16 Betting Trends & Angles: Danger for Big Ben in Houston?

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 19, 2017 2:31 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017 2:31 PM UTC

Our Week 16 NFL situational trends and angles factor in some postseason motivation and plenty of QB play. Check out why Matt Ryan and the Falcons are a good fade at the Saints, the Steelers are spotting too many points at Houston, the Jets are dangerous home dogs, and Green Bay packs it in vs. the Vikings.

Matt Ryan Weak vs. Strong Divisional Defenses

The Falcons are in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs and defend their NFC crown following a 24-21 win over Tampa on Monday. They can also claim the NFC South if they win out. Good luck with that this weekend at the Saints.

Quarterback Matt Ryan is just 4-12 SU and 3-12-1 ATS on the road vs. divisional foes with a defense surrendering fewer than 25 points per game in his career. Atlanta’s offense, which has looked out of sync much of the year — particularly the connection between Ryan and star receiver Julio Jones — puts up just 18.5 points per game in his spot. As an underdog, the total dips to 16.4 per game, the Falcons going 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS. They are being thoroughly blown out as well, losing by 14.6 points on average.

New Orleans, a 5.5-point favorite, enters with the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFC, yielding just 20.1 points per game.

Steelers Overvalued As Road Chalk Outside AFC North

The Steelers are 0-8 ATS as road favorites of 9 points or more against non-divisional opponents with Ben Roethlisberger under center. They are 10.5-point chalk for their Christmas afternoon tilt at the Texans. This angle most recently triggered in Week 10 when Pittsburgh needed a 33-yard field goal on the final play of the game to top the Colts 20-17 in Indy.

The difference between the final score and spread is not even close. Pittsburgh fails to cover a 10.1-point spread by 9.1 points per game. The offense sputters in this spot, putting up just 21.2 points per contest. Big Ben averages 285.0 yards, 1.6 TDs and 1.6 INTs via 32.6 passes.

Bettors should expect another dull performance with No. 1 receiver Antonio Brown out indefinitely due to a calf injury. In case there is significant line movement, consider this: the Steelers are just 7-6 SU and 2-11 ATS when laying a touchdown or more in this spot. Woof.

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no player wants to leave the field with an injury but to receive this love and have the whole stadium behind me, what a blessing 🙏🏿 thank you pic.twitter.com/zziKz2ScLJ

— Antonio Brown (@AB84) December 19, 2017

Jets Dangerous As Home Underdogs

Jets head coach Todd Bowles does not go down easy at MetLife Stadium. He is 6-8 SU and 9-4-1 ATS catching points at home in his tenure, losing by more than a touchdown just four times. When spotted a field goal or more, New York is 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS, covering a 5.3-point line by 8.8 points per game. The LA Chargers enter as touchdown favorites. Oddsmakers listed this meeting a pick ‘em in lookahead lines prior to the season. The difference might be too much. Expect the Jets to keep it competitive and challenge for a win. They pulled off a shock 38-31 over the Chiefs in Week 13 the last time these conditions were met.

Packers’ Playoff Elimination Equals Fade City

For the first time since 2008, the Packers will not make the NFL playoffs. MVP Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who started for the first time since Week 6 in a 31-24 loss at Carolina last week because of a broken collarbone, is sore and likely to rest.

Even if the postseason was still within reach, Green Bay was likely going to be overwhelmed by the pressure. Home teams entering Week 16 with a .500 record are 26-28 SU and 16-35-3 ATS since 1989. They kick off 3.4-point favorites on average. The game is now meaningless for the Pack, while the Vikings, already guaranteed a playoff spot, need a win to qualify for a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Visiting teams sporting a better record in the above-mentioned situation are 14-7 SU and 12-6-3 ATS overall. The line is off the board as of publication, but the lean should be with Minny regardless of the number.

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