We hit on two player props yesterday, and to cap off Week 15, I am back one more time to find some value in the NFL Odds. There are some late breaking prop odds from Bovada and Bet365, and both have some great value heading into tonight’s Lions and Ravens game.
This first prop comes from Bet365, and it’s Torrey Smith’s touchdown price tonight. At +120, I think Smith is going to follow the path of Brandon Marshall (-110) and Zach Ertz (+250) this week and get into the end zone.
Heading into this week, the Lions were tied with the Eagles, Bills and Packers for the most TDs given up to opposing wide receivers at 17, and although the Lions have been passed by several teams because of the games yesterday, I’m sure after tonight they will be right back near the bottom of the league in defending the pass.
Smith has been coming on nicely, and even with the return of Dennis Pitta, Smith has been feasting recently. Although he had a rough game against the Vikings in Week 14, he has scored in three of the Ravens’ last five games. All signs indicate that this game should be pretty high scoring, and if Week 15’s totals were any indicator, I expect Smith to have plenty of opportunities to beat the Detroit secondary.
Chris Houston is doubtful heading into tonight’s game, while second stringer Darius Slay is also likely out. This is going to put a huge strain on the already weak Lions’ secondary, and at +120, the value with Smith to sneak into the end zone is real tonight.
My Pick: Torrey Smith TD Scored (+120)
Receiving yards spread
I don’t even know how this prop exists, but it does, and I’m ready to take advantage. At Bovada, the tight end battle between Dennis Pitta and Brandon Pettigrew favors Pitta at only -15 ½ yards, and he’s priced in at -105. I absolutely love the value Pitta is presenting tonight, and at -105, it just sweetens the deal.
Pitta made his return last week after a career threatening injury in training camp, and he picked up right where he left off in the Super Bowl. Pitta caught six passes for 48 yards and a touchdown in his first game back last week, and even though the Lions are stingy against the tight end, Pettigrew is so inconsistent that you have to like this NFL pick. Pitta was, and is becoming a key weapon for the Ravens, and most likely Joe Flacco’s favorite target. He saw 11 targets in Week 14, and with more practice and game time will come the rhythm, especially in the red zone. His touchdown price tonight is also very nice at +175, but instead, I really like him against Pettigrew.
The Ravens aren’t bad at defending against the tight end either. What’s more important however is that with Reggie Bush healthy, (reports are that he will play) the Lions need Pettigrew to block more than catch passes. Pettigrew has caught more than three catches only once in the Lions’ last seven games, and in Detroit’s last four games, he has averaged only 25 yards per game. Pitta should benefit from another week of practice, and probably some more snaps this week as well, so take him tonight at Bovada.
My Pick: Dennis Pitta -15 ½ receiving yards (-105) vs. Brandon Pettigrew