Week 14 SNF Capper Court: Rams To 'Flex' Muscles In Windy City

nfl week 14 rams bears

SBR Staff

Monday, December 3, 2018 3:43 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 3, 2018 3:43 PM UTC

Welcome to the "Capper Court," where five of SBR's NFL handicappers will provide their opinions on Thursday night and Sunday night NFL games. The majority rules! It's a Rams-Bears flexed game on SNF for Week 14.

LA Rams (11-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) at Chicago (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)Free Majority Pick: Rams -3.5 Opening LineBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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Matthew Jordan:

This writer recommended betting against the Bears on Sunday as 3.5-point favorites at the Giants because it seemed like a trap game for Chicago off three straight division games and wins in a span of 12 days. Plus, Mitchell Trubisky sat out a second straight with a shoulder injury. The Giants would win 30-27 in overtime, and it took a near-miracle for the Bears to get that to overtime. They deserved to lose, and backup QB Chase Daniel was picked twice – one returned for a score. Chicago is much-improved this year but can’t afford to turn the ball over three times against any opponent, much less the high-powered Rams. We are going to assume Trubisky returns this week.

L.A. avoided its own potential trap game Sunday with a 30-16 victory in a game that was much tighter than the score would indicate. Jared Goff wasn’t very good but Todd Gurley was with 23 carries for 132 yards and two scores (both in the fourth quarter). The win clinched the NFC West for the Rams, who now sit atop the NFC with the Saints losing last Thursday night in Dallas. The Rams became the first team since the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 to wrap up the NFC West by Week 13. I recommend buying this number down to -2.5 and backing the Rams in this flexed game.

Swinging Johnson:

The Rams secured their second straight NFC West crown with a 30-16 win in Motown over the Lions. LA didn’t exactly break out of the blocks but eventually Jared Goff hit Robert Woods for a touchdown and once Todd Gurley kicked it in for a pair of fourth quarter trips into the end zone, the celebration was on and the Rams are now vying for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bears were once again without Mitchell Trubisky and his backup Chase Daniel was picked off twice while tossing one touchdown in the team’s 30-27 overtime loss to the Giants. But perhaps more concerning was the play of his offensive line that allowed five sacks and constant pressure on the 10-year veteran. By virtue of the fact that all the NFC North teams lost on Sunday, the Bears still hold the top spot by 1½ games over the Vikings.

It’s tempting to grab the points with a talented home hound like the Bears but Trubisky’s status is up in the air and even if he does play, I’m not banking on that shoulder being completely healed nor am I convinced that the young quarterback will have had enough opportunity to shake off the rust and keep pace with a high-octane offense like LA’s. I will reluctantly play the role of the square and lay points on the road with the Rams.

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The Bears have generated a pick-six in every nationally televised game they've played in so far this year.

Week 1 @ Packers -- Khalil Mack
Week 2 vs. Seahawks -- Prince Amukamara
Week 11 vs. Vikings -- Eddie Jackson
Week 12 @ Lions -- Eddie Jackson

Who's next vs. Rams? 👀

— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 30, 2018
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Doug Upstone:

The status of Mitchell Trubisky for the Sunday night game will not be known until later in the week and that will matter to many football bettors. However, this Chicago squad is not built around how their quarterback plays, rather he's a part of the puzzle, not the main component in coach Matt Nagy's offense. In Chi-Town, the offense has to make plays and limit mistakes because there in imaginative play-calling and a solid defense to take care of the rest.

The Rams' Jared Goff had a rare off game at Detroit, but thanks to Todd Gurley, Los Angeles still pulled away and covered against the Lions. The Rams will have to deal with the cold and a Bears defense that will look to lock up Gurley and be in Goff's grill for four quarters. Though Daniels has played about as expected in replacing Trubisky, any underdog bettor would want the No. 1 quarterback under center. If Mitch plays, Chicago is a solid choice over three points, if he's still out, definitely less so.

Kevin Stott:

A flexed-in NFC Sunday Night Football showdown from Soldier Field where I once saw The Rolling Stones play and a dude wheeling a massive 6-foot cross on his bare back at 8 a.m. as we waited to get in to hear the music. If Jesus played football, you know he’d be a QB and he’d probably be turning the Water in the opponent's water bottles into Wine so that they’d all be drunk by the late 2nd Quarter. Then the son of God would probably pass, pass, pass the ball, trying to exploit the drunk DBs.

The SNF Trends show the Bears are 6-9 ATS at Home and 9-15 as underdogs with the Rams 7-7 ATS Road and 3-7 ATS as chalks, but that was when they still played in St Louis in a stadium where the turf caught on fire and had Marc Bulger, Sam Bradford and Kellen Clemens under Center. Perhaps playing in Lalaland with Goff’s better than playing in The Lou with Austin Davis? The Bears and either Trubisky-Daniel will probably have trouble scoring while Goff, Gurley and that wunnerful troika of Rams WRs won’t, despite Mack and Chicago’s stubborn, deep-dish Defense (20.9 ppg, #3).

Rainman:

The Bears are relatively dependent on the run, ranking seventh in run play percentage. But they don’t run well, ranking 28th in YPC, and they therefore won’t be able to exploit the weakness of the Rams’ defense, which is the run game. Chicago's leading running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard average only 3.4 and 4.3 YPC, respectively. Cohen is a sensational talent, but his strength is in the passing game. He leads Chicago in receiving yards and receptions. Chicago matches up poorly against L.A., which ranks second in pass defense against opposing running backs and will limit Chicago’s strength on offense.

Chicago’s defense looks great statistically, but it has failed against its toughest tests. Chicago faced two offenses that rank top 10 in offense DVOA. Green Bay scored 21 4th-quarter points with a hobbling Aaron Rodgers. New England scored 38 points in a cover. The Rams will be Chicago’s toughest test, ranking second in offensive DVOA. They’ve scored 30+ points in four straight games thanks to its balance between strong passing and rushing attacks. Chicago won’t keep up. Its quarterback Mitch Trubisky has missed his last two games and is listed as questionable.

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