Even Without Gronk, Bet Patriots -10.5 at Dolphins

New England Patriot

David Schwab

Saturday, December 9, 2017 6:49 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017 6:49 PM GMT

The 10-2 New England Patriots go for the season sweep against the division rival 5-7 Miami Dolphins in the final game on the slate in Week 14 as the featured matchup on Monday Night Football.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

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Free NFL Pick: Patriots -10.5Best Line Offered: at HeritageGame Overview

New England beat the Dolphins 35-17 in Week 12 as a heavy 17-point home favorite as part of its current straight-up eight-game winning streak. The Patriots have now covered against the spread in their last six games with last Sunday’s 23-3 victory on the road against Buffalo as 7.5-point favorites. They are now 8-4 ATS on the year to go along with an AFC-best 10-2 record SU. The total went OVER 49 points in that first meeting against Miami, but it has stayed UNDER in six of New England’s last eight games.

If the Patriots do go on to pull off the season sweep, it will have to be without the services of All Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is serving a one-game league suspension. He has been Tom Brady’s top target in the passing game, especially when it comes to touchdown throws with seven of Brady’s 26 on the year. New England is ranked first in the NFL in passing yards and fourth in scoring with 29.0 points per game.

The Dolphins were able to snap a SU five-game losing streak with a 35-9 victory against Denver last Sunday as slight one-point home underdogs. This was the first time that they covered ATS in their last seven games and the total has now gone OVER in every one of those seven outings. Miami is 4-6-2 ATS overall with a 3-5-1 mark ATS when closing as an underdog.

Given the fact that the Dolphins are ranked 25th in the league in scoring with an average of 24.8 PPG, you have to question what will be different this time around even with this game being played in Miami. Jay Cutler has taken a beating this season at quarterback and the running game has slipped to 29th in the league behind Kenyan Drake as the team’s lead back. Miami’s defense has been just as bad with a points-allowed average of 24.8 that is 25th in the NFL.

Game Betting Trends
  • The Patriots have covered in 13 of their last 16 road games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five division games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record and they have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against the division. The total has gone OVER in their last four home games.
  • The home team in this division clash is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two rivals.

Pick

New England already covered a double-digit spread against the Dolphins at home and, given this team’s current form, it would be hard to see this game staying closer than 11 points. Losing Gronk on offense will have an impact on the passing game, but the Patriots’ next man up philosophy should be able to fill that void. Betting against a team that has covered six times in a row by a combined 112 points is just too big of a factor to ignore. My top NFL pick is New England covering ATS given the current spread on the board at SBR Odds.

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