Week 14 Totals Picks: Lock 'Over' In Bengals-Chargers?

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, December 5, 2018 1:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2018 1:41 PM UTC

We now head into the last quarter of the season with everything on the line, along with what will be some really dreadful contests. Regardless, totals do not show good or bad teams, they just reflect what the two clubs have to offer. Last week was of the most lopsided for totals with the UNDER 11-5, leaving the season record at 99-92 after 13 weeks.

Please note all the NFL odds for each contest are listed after the home team and are from Pinnacle.

Jaguars at Titans (o/v 37 - lowest total)

With the last two meetings between these teams at 15 and 25 total points, this being the lowest total of the week makes perfect sense. We are still going contrarian with Jacksonville 15-5 OVER after one or more Under's.
Pick: Over

Ravens at Chiefs (o/v 53)

Easy Over right? Not so fast. Baltimore's offense has been running the ball during their three-game winning streak and they could keep the Chiefs offense parked on the sidelines. The Ravens are 9-2 UNDER after playing last game on the road and let's not forget K.C. is 4-1 UNDER at home this season.

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The Ravens have the league's top defense in yardage and points allowed. Give Wink his due. pic.twitter.com/4WRk1OIOoK

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) 4 de dezembro de 2018
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Pick: Under

Colts at Texans (o/v 48)

The Colts being shutout adds complexity to determining what side to be on. Chances are they Andrew Luck will be revved up for this confrontation and for NFL picks Houston is 6-0 OVER after having a +2 or more turnover margin.
Pick: Over

Panthers at Browns (o/v 47)

The initial thought was this will be an easy Over. against the NFL odds. When digging deeper, found this system. When a team like Carolina has lost four in a row and the total is 42.5 to 49 in December, the UNDER is 25-4.
Pick: Under

Falcons at Packers (o/v 48.5)

With Atlanta averaging less than 20 PPG during their four-game losing streak and Green Bay at 21.2 PPG in their past five outings, the Under should be the right play and besides, the Falcons are 6-0 Under in December. Yet, cannot ignore the Packers are 15-5 OVER at home after a loss by three points or less and 12-1 OVER after a home game.
Pick: Over

Saints at Buccaneers (o/v 56 - highest total)

Expect New Orleans to want to put that weak showing behind them and come out on fire. Tampa Bay will be complicit and they are 7-1 OVER an underdog this season.
Pick: Over

Jets at Bills (o/v 38)

The previous contest between these Empire State teams was an OVER and look for more of the same with Buffalo 15-5 OVER when playing at home the past three years.
Pick: Over

Patriots at Dolphins (o/u 47)

Going to Miami has always been a weird trip for New England. It seems like something unusual always happens in South Florida. As far as the total, the Patriots are 15-6 UNDER as road favorites and 9-2 UNDER in away games when the total is 45.5 or higher.

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That VICTORY MONDAY feeling.

Celebrating Sunday's win & an extra day off inside the locker room.
Full video: https://t.co/RqosVMCH9o pic.twitter.com/yfpoc59rkl

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) 3 de dezembro de 2018
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Pick: Under

Giants at Redskins (o/v 41.5)

It would seem Washington would have challenging time scoring with Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Yet, at the same time look for the Redskins to play with pride at home and not allow New York to make multiple trips into the end zone.
Pick: Under

Broncos at 49ers (o/v 44)

Denver has found their way to play, run the ball, short play-action passes and let the defense do the rest. That formula should work at San Francisco and the Broncos are 8-1 UNDER against opponents permitting 24 or more points.
Pick: Under

Bengals at Chargers (o/v 48)

The Carson Chargers should be able to go up and down the field on Cincinnati's defense which ranks last in yards and points allowed. The only way this is not an OVER is if Chargers have thoughts in their heads about playing Kansas City next week.
Pick: Over

Lions at Cardinals (o/v 40)

This NFC encounter features two offenses that are struggling to score points. Here is one other consideration. Play UNDER on any team (Arizona) after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, with a win percentage of 25% or lower, playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. (30-7)
Pick: Under

Eagles at Cowboys (o/v 48.5)

Bring the 'D' and the fence for this rivalry confrontation. Philly is 7-1 UNDER after allowing six or more yards a play in their previous game and Dallas is 11-3 UNDER after a home game.
Pick: Under

Steelers at Raiders (o/v 51.5)

With Pittsburgh 11-2 Under on the road recently, the lower score seems like the obvious choice. Yet, the total is two points higher from the opening line, Oakland's defense cannot stop anyone in permitting over 30 PPG and the Steelers will want to pound somebody badly after two unsightly losses.

Pick: Over

Rams at Bears (o/v 52.5)

The weather will play a big part in what the total ends up at and how this NFC affair will play out. But for now, we will assume nothing will hold back either offense back and both are clever and aggressive and 55 points is a real possibility.
Pick: Over

Vikings at Seahawks (o/v - 45.5)

Each player should tighten the chin strap because this tilt will be decided in the trenches. Seattle's top-rated running goes up against Minnesota's No.7 run defense for starters. And the Vikings need pass protection to keep Kirk Cousins upright to complete passes. Let's go lower with the Seahawks 18-6 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.
Pick: Under

Also, make sure to check out SBR’s NFL game-by-game ATS picks.
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