Week 14 NFL Picks: Game-By-Game Against The Spread Predictions

SBR Staff

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 2:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018 2:50 PM UTC

Here's an NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet. Each week of the season, you will find the entire slate with picks ATS and each capper's quick-hitting reasoning. SBR also will have full previews of each week's prime-time and marquee games.

Opening NFL Spread: Tennessee -4.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

JAGUARS

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TITANS

Matthew Jordan: Could be painful to watch, much like Tennessee’s 9-6 win in Jacksonville in Week 3. Willing to bet there will be at least one TD this time. Home team 5-2-1 ATS past 8 in series.

Doug Upstone: If one is willing to do the work, you can come up with a lot of negatives on Tennessee, but the Jaguars needed a shutout to beat Indy to stop a seven-game losing streak. Titans cover.

Rainman: Jaguars will struggle to score with backup QB, receivers that lead NFL in drops, running back with bad history against the Titans, and injury-ridden offensive line. Titans 3-0 ATS L3 vs Jax.

Swinging Johnson: Jags are known for a really good defense but a lousy offense. The same can be said of the Titans but Tennessee’s D is every bit as good and they have a better QB so lay it here.

Kevin Stott: Jags 1-5 ATS as dogs on TNF and take poor care of the pigskin (-11 TO) while Titans are still in hunt and playing good D (18.9 ppg, #2) but are hamstrung by 30th-ranked Offense (295.4 ypg).

Opening NFL Spread: Buffalo -3Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

JETS

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BILLS

Matthew Jordan: Bills suck but are playing hard for Sean McDermott. They trashed the Jets 41-10 in Week 10. Not sure how Todd Bowles kept his job after that. Bills 4-1 ATS past 5 at home in series.

Doug Upstone: How the Jets and Bills managed to lose last Sunday, should be on CBS’ “48 Hours” but they did. Gang Green will continue to fall and is 3-14 ATS off a road cover losing as an underdog.

Rainman: Bills have highest run play frequency and should thrive vs. Jets who rank 18th in opp. YPC. Bills D ranks sixth in INT’s and will feast on INT-prone Darnold, who may return after month absence.

Swinging Johnson: Jets melted in their loss to the Titans and it will be hard to rebound against Bills’ No. 1 pass defense. If Darnold does go, he’ll be rusty and should be easy pickins for Buffy D.

Kevin Stott: New Era Field may be wet but not freezing (41°) when the Airplanes land in Flour City where they are 1-4 ATS L5, and after winning 41-10 as dogs at MetLife, pay dem Bill$, Shady?

Opening NFL Spread: Carolina -2Best Line Offered: BetOnline

PANTHERS

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BROWNS

Matthew Jordan: Former Heisman-winning No. 1 overall picks face off in Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield. Cats coach Ron Rivera made few staff changes this week, but his team 2-7 ATS past 9 on road.

Doug Upstone: Panthers in free fall and 1-5 SU and ATS on road. Ron Rivera fired two of his defensive coaches and Carolina's in trouble. Baker Mayfield bounces back and has big game at home.

Rainman: Panthers still haven’t figured out how to win or cover on the road. They’re 1-5 ATS away, 0-3 ATS as road favorites, and are 0-4 L$ ATS overall. They allow a 116 opposing passer rating away.

Swinging Johnson: Cleveland disappointed last week but Carolina seems to do that every week. The Panthers are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 road games and have dropped their last 4 straight up.

Kevin Stott: Days of teasing (and blindly fading) the Browns are over, not because they won a Road game or twice in a row, but because of Baker and young Roster and the aging of Bangles & Blackbirds.

Opening NFL Spread: Green Bay -6Best Line Offered: Bovada

FALCONS

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PACKERS

Matthew Jordan: Most disappointing teams in the NFC. Packers begin life without Mike McCarthy, which I believe will make Aaron Rodgers quite happy. Falcons haven’t topped 20 points in 4-game skid.

Doug Upstone: How the Packers play will say a lot about what they thought about McCarthy. Atlanta's offense even worse than the Packers right now. Hard to trust either team, still backing Pack.

Rainman: Packers just fired coach. Teams tend to play better in this spot. Atlanta is a bad road team, 1-4 ATS away, will be uncomfortable outside of dome. Rodgers will destroy their low-ranked pass D.

Swinging Johnson: I keep waiting for the Falcons to wake up and get good again. Or did I mean to say the Packers? Both are failing spectacularly but McCarthy firing is a cold splash of water for GB.

Kevin Stott: Mr Rodgers (50-28 ATS at Home) has been his brilliant, putting up Tagliavoila-like numbers (21 TD/1 INT), but Tua has weapons and a great D while Aaron’s glad this at Home vs. tired Falcons.

Opening NFL Spread: Kansas City -7Best Line Offered: Heritage

RAVENS

Doug Upstone: The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS of late and look like the Sooners (all 'O' and no 'D'). The Ravens defense is rugged and their running game can play keep away. At +7 or higher, like Baltimore.

Rainman: Chiefs haven’t faced a pass defense this tough. Ravens’ secondary is stacked with talent and ranks second in opposing passer rating. Their D has helped them cover 3 straight as underdogs.

Swinging Johnson: When the QB is the team’s leading rusher it might be time to get a running back. Such was the case with KC last week, sans Hunt, and this Ravens D will batter Mahomes this week.

CHIEFS

Matthew Jordan: North of 7 points, where this opened, I would have taken the points. The Ravens are far superior on defense, but they also are are 1-6 ATS in last 7 after consecutive ATS wins.

Kevin Stott: Mahomes (40 TDs) and Lamar Jackson play fast so expect points galore at Arrowhead, probably 73% of them from Kelce, Hill and speedy hosts who are 12-4-1 ATS in their L17. Baltimore’s lost.

Opening NFL Spread: New England -8Best Line Offered: Intertops

PATRIOTS

Doug Upstone: Over the years New England has had problems in Miami at 10-16 SU. With early spread over a TD, backing the Patriots could be an uncomfortable choice. Yet, still right one over 4 QT's.

Kevin Stott: Both expected to be feeling better about seasons by December, a month where NE thrives (10-1 ATS L11), going 83-25 SU and 67-48 ATS (58.3%). Fish are 49-70 ATS (41.2%) because they hate Cold?

DOLPHINS

Matthew Jordan: Previewed this here at SBR and like Miami getting above 7. Tom Brady just 7-9 all-time at the Dolphins and the Pats were shut down there last year. NE 1-4 ATS in past five in Miami.

Rainman: Brady-led Patriots have bad history in Miami, where Dolphins have covered four of last five in the series. Fins allow 74 opposing passer rating at home. Miami much healthier in this rematch.

Swinging Johnson: Pats may squish Fish but Miami is very good at home with a 5-1 ATS record vs. a middling 3-3 ATS mark for the Pats on the road. Letdown expected from NE after a big win over Vikes.

Opening NFL Spread: New Orleans -8Best Line Offered: YouWager

SAINTS

Doug Upstone: Tampa Bay defense has played well in three of last four games which gives them a chance. New Orleans was flat at Dallas and plays with far more purpose hoping to regain NFC home field.

Kevin Stott: Who Dats (W9-10 ATS) wanna keep in NFC Homefield hunt, so expect Brees (73-55 ATS on Road, 5-0 in 2018) to make easy work of Bucs (4-1 ATS L5 at Home in series) who rotate QBs like it will help.

BUCS

Matthew Jordan: Was right betting against Saints last week, and don’t think should be giving more than a TD here. Jameis Winston looks like new QB and Bucs playing well. NO 1-4 ATS past 5 in Tampa.

Rainman: Brees-led Saints tend to struggle in Tampa. Bucs are 4-1 L5 ATS at home in the series. Bucs-led Winston are 3-0 SU at home, Winston has 4:0 touchdown-to-int ratio in last 2 home games.

Swinging Johnson: If you like defense then turn the channel because this will be a shootout like the last one. TB D getting better and Winston looks settled after a tumultuous season. Grab home dog.

Opening NFL Spread: Washington -1.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

GIANTS

Matthew Jordan: Skins now with Mark Sanchez under center. LOL. Giants starting to play well (5-0 ATS past 5 on road) and you take Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. over any Redskin on offense.

Doug Upstone: In some way you feel sorry for Washington, once being 6-3 and having a chance to win the NFC East. Injuries have robbed them of that chance and improving Giants will make matters worse.

Swinging Johnson: Mark Sanchez can lead a team to victory about as well as mall security can stop an armed robbery. If you can throw a tight spiral 10 yards, I advise you to contact Redskins' front office.

Kevin Stott: Four score and seven years ago, Jints (7-4 ATS L11 series) were a good team while Redskins are not wanting to blow what looks like a good season but may actually be a burgundy-and-gold mirage.

Rainman: Wash is slipping, lost second QB for rest of season. G-men have figured out how to score, covered three in a row. Giants are 5-1 ATS away. Skins allow 4.7 YPC at home, so big game from Saquon.

REDSKINS

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Opening NFL Spread: Houston -5Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

COLTS

Rainman: Colts laid rare egg to third-ranked pass D, were possibly looking ahead to this game. Houston ranks 18th in opp. passing yards and will struggle to pressure Luck. Indy 4-0-1 L5 ATS in Houston.

TEXANS

Matthew Jordan: Houston should have lost at Indy in Week 4 to be 0-4 … and its season would have been over. Now the Texans are unbeatable. Colts are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road.

Doug Upstone: Did you see early spread on this game? What does Houston have to do to get oddsmakers respect, beat Alabama? The Texans are 8-0 ATS after rushing for 150+ yards in two straight contests.

Swinging Johnson: Colts ran out of Luck last week when they were blanked by the Jags. Texans D suffocating lately and riding a 9-game winning streak. Indy offense will be stymied again this week.

Kevin Stott: AFC South showdown with Luck healthy and Watson maturing nicely, although the game’s hateworthy from a handicapping POV. Just watch? Horseshoes 4-0-1 ATS L5 trips to NRG Stadium.

Opening NFL Spread: LA Chargers -14Best Line Offered: GT Bets

BENGALS

Matthew Jordan: Yes, Bengals have quit on Marvin Lewis and now have lost A.J. Green. But this is way too many points, especially with Chargers in possible letdown spot off amazing win at Steelers.

Rainman: Chargers in letdown spot after comeback win on primetime TV vs. Steelers, may also be looking ahead to next game vs. Chiefs. Bengals are healthier on D, Driskel will improve with experience.

CHARGERS

Doug Upstone: A big number on the Bolts after unreal win at Pittsburgh. Nonetheless, does anyone feel good about taking Jeff Driskel over Philip Rivers in this matchup? Bengals more like kitties presently.

Swinging Johnson: Bengals are a broken team with Dalton and now Green on shelf. They are a mere husk of the mediocre team they were and the Bolts should feast. Tough to lay 2 TDs but not tough enough.

Kevin Stott: Cincinnati (62-53 ATS December) is fading while LA is off a tussle at Pittsburgh and want the W, looking up at KC. With the Bangles traveling 3 Time Zones and 2,172 miles, SD should roll.

Opening NFL Spread: Denver -5.5Best Line Offered: BetPhoenix

BRONCOS

Matthew Jordan: Denver Broncos a playoff team? This 3-game winning streak has likely saved Coach Vance Joseph’s job. Niners should want to lose to get No. 1 overall pick. They 5-15 past 20 at home.

Doug Upstone: Denver has won 3 in a row and ion 6-1 ATS stretch. San Francisco -17 in turnover margin since October and do not figure to be much better going into this encounter, even at home.

Kevin Stott: Big Zipper (Levi's® Stadium) in The City (Santa Clara) By The City (SF) By The Bay is the Site of a possible borefest where points may be scarcer than Gold in Sutter Creek these days. Edge Keenum.

49ERS

Rainman: Denver is run-first, but 49ers have good run D especially at home where limited Gurley and Saquon. Keenum won’t do enough to cover. For SF, Mullens will thrive vs injured Denver secondary.

Swinging Johnson: Broncos have been winning but their offense gives me cause for pause and to lay nearly a TD on the road when the Nick the Kid from SF tossed for over 400 yards last week? Ah, no.

Opening NFL Spread: Dallas -4Best Line Offered: Betmania

EAGLES

Rainman: Huge let-down spot for Dallas after 'Super Bowl' win vs. Saints. After first half against Giants two weeks ago, Eagles defense has looked transformed. Dallas pass D will be vulnerable to Wentz.

Kevin Stott: Huge game for Iggles, but can they rise? They’ll have to. Stopping Zeke (DAL 6-1 when he has 30+ Touches) will be first order of bidness. Dallas stealing WR Cooper from Oakland was brilliant.

COWBOYS

Matthew Jordan: Cowboys could all but wrap up division with a season sweep of Eagles, who are on a short week. Dallas has been a good bet at home all year and 9-3 SU past 12 as a favorite overall.

Doug Upstone: This is where Dallas usually blows it, needing to win a big game at home. Watching the Cowboys, they are better than Eagles and 7-0 ATS versus defenses allowing 350 or more YPG.

Swinging Johnson: Philly’s victory over a depleted Redskins team was not impressive and the truth of the matter is that the Eagles are destined for an early vacation unless the moon and stars align.

Opening NFL Spread: Detroit -2.5Best Line Offered: Skybook

LIONS

Swinging Johnson: Arizona won their Super Bowl last week with a stunning win over Packers. We all know what next week brings after one of these upset wins and it ain’t pretty. Regression to the mean.

CARDINALS

Matthew Jordan: Really don’t care about this game. Cardinals are at least trying as evidenced by last week’s upset in Green Bay. Lions are making golf plans and just 1-5 ATS past 6 overall.

Doug Upstone: Arizona's upset at Green Bay was so unsettling Packers fire head coach. Cardinals will have a shot at another win with Detroit an abysmal 11-27 ATS as a road favorite since 1992.

Rainman: Detroit not worth chalk. Lions struggle to run without healthy Kerryon, averaging four YPC in last 3 games. Stafford struggling without healthy receivers. Zona has covered L5 home games in series.

Kevin Stott: Jim Bob Cooter, he one bad motor scooter. With Lions having not beaten an NFC West team on Road since 2000 (0-18 SU, 3-13-2 ATS) and traveling 2,280 miles and 3 Time Zones, picking hosts.

Opening NFL Spread: Pittsburgh -11.5Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

STEELERS

Kevin Stott: To flex or not to flex, that was the ?? and the NFL flexed, so we all win. Don’t be surprised when NASA’s Mars InSight Mission discovers seven Steelers fans in Elysium Planitia on Red Planet.

RAIDERS

Matthew Jordan: How aren’t Steelers flat off that historic blown lead at home Sunday night vs. Bolts? Pittsburgh 1-6 ATS past 7 in December. Raiders hung with Chiefs in Week 13 and can do same here.

Doug Upstone: Pittsburgh has to rekindle running game and Oakland's NFL worst run defense is a perfect fit for Steelers. Yet, at home, the Raiders showing more gumption and they cover double digits.

Rainman: Steelers in tough spot psychologically after deflating loss to Chargers and face Pats after this. Raiders are still losing games, but have at least looked competitive and are 6-1 ATS L7 vs Pitt.

Swinging Johnson: The loss to the Bolts last week took the starch out of Pitt as they cruise into Oakland expecting to breeze. Raiders put up 33 last week in a cover over KC. Carr looked sharp - finally.

Opening NFL Spread: LA Rams -3Best Line Offered: BookMaker

RAMS

Matthew Jordan: Bears better be praying for freezing temperatures and snow. Now that Rams back in top spot in NFC, they won’t let up. Chicago defense has looked vulnerable at times this year.

Rainman: Bears’ defense will be overpowered by Rams’ elite passing offense. Chicago’s best weapon on offense is Tarik Cohen catching passes, but Rams’ pass defense ranks second against opposing RBs.

Swinging Johnson: Trubisky’s status is uncertain and whenever there’s a question mark surrounding a star player, I always assume he won’t be full tilt come game time. Rams are too good to pass up.

Kevin Stott: Uncle Rog flexed us this partridge in a pear tree where the New Monsters of the Midway will really be up against it vs Goff, Gurley and those wunnerful WRs. Chicago too much trouble scoring.

BEARS

Doug Upstone: This is a risky choice if Chase Daniel is still starting QB. However, oddsmakers put out an early line on this game confident in their number and with Chicago's defense, they can cover.

Opening NFL Spread: Seattle -3Best Line Offered: BetCris

VIKINGS

Rainman: Defense travels. Seattle is run-dependent, ranking second in run play percentage. But Vikings own fifth-best run D. Minnesota has covered its last 4 after not covering game before.

Kevin Stott: Will be a tough Loss for whomever. Seattle’s 3-1 ATS the L4 series meetings and 4-1 ATS the L5 at CenturyLink, so give me some Starbucks and throw a fish at me? Best not. I'm writing.

SEAHAWKS

Matthew Jordan: Vital game in the NFC wild-card chase. Rough travel for Vikings, from New England then Seattle. Their offense has been quite in back-to-back road losses. Seattle 6-1-1 ATS past 8.

Doug Upstone: Massive NFC Wild Card ramifications on the line here. Since starting 0-2, Seattle is 7-3 (6-3-1 ATS) and could easily be 8-2. In this one betting on Russell Wilson over Kirk Cousins.

Swinging Johnson: One team being overlooked this year among the SB contenders is the Seahawks. Seattle is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC while Vikes are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Season ATS records: MJ (107-81-4), RM (87-101-4), SJ (94-95-3), DU (95-86-11), KS (91-97-4)

Survivor Picks: MJ (PIT), RM (GB), SJ (LAC), DU (LAC), KS (KC)

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