Week 14 NFL Picks: False Favorites and Dangerous Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 2, 2014 8:22 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2014 8:22 PM GMT

My NFL picks here last week were worse than the pair of ugly socks or tie you will be getting this Christmas. This was a huge disappointment for both you and me I’ll perform much better this week.

As I said last week, the Thanksgiving week for me tends to be feast or famine and the sportsbooks fattened up on me last week. Nevertheless, for sports bettors like myself, there are NFL betting odds the next day which create opportunity and I have two big false favorites and a live top underdog this week.

 

New Orleans Not Fat and Sassy Just Yet
You might have noticed as an NFL football handicapper, I’m not sold on the Saints thus far. Yes this team is dangerous because of their offense, but if Pittsburgh finishes it first three drives, they are up 21-0, not down 7-6.

As it were, New Orleans could not stand prosperity and had to hang on after building a 35-16 lead in the fourth quarter.

Why won’t the Saints cover double digits against a Carolina team that is 1-8-1 SU since Week 3? Let’s start with this is a division game and no matter the records, that is boatload of points, especially for the No. 31 total defense.

While Carolina was whipped by Minnesota last week 31-14, they outgained the Vikings by 138 yards and were done in by two blocked punts that went directly for touchdowns.

Finally, the Panthers are 12-6 ATS in the Big Easy and the NFC South is fraught with odd trend matchups like this. New Orleans wins, just by less than 10.

NFL False Favorite: New Orleans

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Is Detroit Worthy of Being a Chalky Favorite?
The Lions offense finally awoke from its slumber and tallied 34 points against Chicago. If you compare records and potential, Detroit in theory might deserve to be double digit favorites, but there is more to consider versus the NFL betting odds.

One good offensive showing does not a season make and Matthew Stafford the team in Honolulu blue is only averaging 19.2 points a game against opponents allowing 23.4 PPG.

The Lions defense will most likely keep Tampa Bay in the 14-to-17 point range, but I don’t see Detroit providing their best effort, off a division contest and three more on deck.

Toss in the Bucs are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and the Lions are 1-9 ATS in December, and with sports picks, we have another false favorite.

NFL False Favorite: Detroit

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Seattle Starting to Look like Last Year’s Squad
I find it potentially enlightening many sportsbooks made Seattle and Philadelphia a Pick, thus at least in principle stating the Seahawks are the better club at the moment before the betting public made the Eagles a small home favorite.

Pete Carroll’s crew is beginning to look more like last year’s bunch with a punishing running game, Russell Wilson making plays with his arm and legs and the defense suffocating the opposing team.

I am not expecting Seattle to shutdown Philadelphia completely on offense, but with the Seahawks pass rush and secondary playing like the Legion of Boom again, Mark Sanchez might well toss a couple errant passes that Seattle turns into points.

For my NFL picks this weekend, the champs are a live dog!

NFL Underdog with Bite: Seattle

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