Week 14 NFL Picks: Biggest Value Betting High Spreads

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, December 5, 2015 6:15 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 5, 2015 6:15 PM UTC

Back to my winning ways on top spread NFL picks last week, hitting on Cincinnati -8.5 & Kansas City -6.5. Here are my three selections so we can keep beating the NFL odds on Week 14.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots 
Did you know that Patriots coach Bill Belichick used to pick the brain of Eagles coach Chip Kelly when Kelly was at Oregon? Of course Kelly's offense was revolutionary there but hasn't been working quite as well in the NFL. Yet, here's what Belichick said this week about that Eagles offense, which has been held under 20 points in four of the past five games: "They can score from anywhere on the field in 1 or 2 plays. It's hard to keep them contained." Coachspeak 101! Perhaps the return of starting quarterback Sam Bradford will fix things. He has missed the past two games, in which Philly was outscored 90-31, but is expected to start in Foxboro. Is Bradford an upgrade on Mark Sanchez? Yes, but not by much. Bradford has completed 63.9 percent of his throws with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has a very mediocre quarterback rating of 82.4. I will be curious if the Pats are a tad deflated after seeing their unbeaten dreams end in Denver on Sunday night. In addition, it appears star tight end Rob Gronkowski won't play due to a knee injury that isn't too serious. That's obviously a huge loss for Tom Brady. Receiver Danny Amendola  might play after missing the Broncos game. Top Patriots linebacker Dont'a Hightower is unlikely to play.

At under double digits on the NFL odds , I'll lean Patriots. But anything over 10, where it's currently at some sportsbooks, and I'm taking the points. New England has covered 35 of its past 50 after a loss. The Eagles are have covered only seven of their previous 25 vs. teams with a winning record.

NFL Pick: New England -9 at Bookmaker

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns 
Have you ever seen a team lose a game like the Cleveland Browns did at home to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night? I have not. In a way, it's a good thing for the franchise as it increases Cleveland's chances of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the draft -- were it today, the Browns would pick No. 2 behind fellow two-win team  Tennessee. Browns starting QB Josh McCown suffered a season-ending broken collarbone in the game and instead of going back to Johnny Manziel, Coach Mike Pettine is handing the keys to Austin Davis. That's how sad things are in Cleveland -- it is opting to start an undrafted free-agent journeyman over a 2014 first-round pick. Davis did look decent against the Bengals when McCown went down, completing 7-for-10 for 77 yards, including a 42-yard touchdown pass to tie the score. Davis started eight games for the Rams last year and was 3-5. Davis will be the 15th different quarterback to start for the Browns against the Bengals while Cincinnati is coached by Marvin Lewis. The Bengals are 17-8 in the previous 25. Cincinnati beat the visiting Browns 31-10 on a Thursday in Week 9. Andy Dalton had three TD passes to tight end Tyler Eifert. Manziel started that game for Cleveland.

Lot of points to give a home team in a rivalry game, but Browns are also on short week in addition to being terrible. Go Bengals as the NFL pick, who could clinch a playoff spot with a win and help. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their past five after a loss.

NFL Pick: Bengals -9 at BetOnline

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Back in August, I would have bet nearly anything that the Bears, projected by some national experts to be a three-win team this season, wouldn't have been a touchdown favorite or more in any game in 2015. But here we are. Chicago has won three of four and its only loss was close at home to a very good Denver team. The Bears stunningly won at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night as the defense allowed less than 20 points for a fourth straight game. That defense is coordinated by Vic Fangio, the former 49ers coordinator. He was up for the San Francisco head coaching job when Jim Harbaugh was fired after last season. So was Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Yet the inept Niners instead promoted Jim Tomsula. So I'm sure this is personal for Gase and Fangio. Is this the game in which San Francisco get its initial first-quarter touchdown of the season? Check out my Bovada specials story on that prop. The 49ers haven't scored more than 20 points since Week 6. And this is one of those 10 a.m. Pacific time starts.  

49ers cover in a very low-scoring game. Wouldn't shock me if there are no offensive touchdowns. San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a loss. Bears  have covered only seven of their past 27 at home. 

NFL Pick: 49ers +7 at Bovada

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