Week 14 Trends To Beat The Book: Why So Serious?

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, December 4, 2018 3:21 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018 3:21 PM UTC

The joke will be on you and your NFL picks if you miss out on these Week 14 betting trends and angles. 

Why So Serious?

Redskins QB Mark Sanchez touched the field for the first time since 2016 Monday night when backup-tuned-starter Colt McCoy sustained a broken left fibula in Washington’s 28-13 loss at Philadelphia. The bearer of the infamous butt fumble, jokes and humorous memes promptly inundated social media. What’s not funny is the fact Sanchez is 1-8 SU and ATS in his last nine games with 10 or more passes, leading the team to 19.4 points per game. The 32-year-old is owns a 10:12 TD-INT ration in this span, while tossing for 6.9 yards per attempt.

It’s a Funny World We Live in

The Jaguars and Colts combined for 6 points in Week 13, just the fifth time since the introduction of the league salary cap (1994) a final score has come in under a touchdown. Since 1989, when an underdog is coming out of a contest in which 10 points or fewer were tallied, it is 20-14 SU and 25-7-2 ATS (78.1 percent) in its follow-up effort. Jacksonville is catching 4 points at Tennessee Thursday night, while Indianapolis is a 4.5-point pup at Houston on Sunday.

Post Steelers Apocalypse

The Steelers’ 33-30 loss to the Chargers last Sunday proved the worst collapse in franchise history. Pittsburgh blew a 16-point lead, its most ever, after compiling a 220-0-2 SU record at home when leading by 14 points or more. The Steelers kicked off 3-point favorites to boot. How has Ben Roethlisberger responded after losing outright as home chalk in his career? Pretty well, going 18-5 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9 percent) next time out.

Know Your Limits

The Saints own the third best scoring offense in the NFL with 34.9 points per game. Know you limits, they will not always put up 30-plus. The “under” has hit in two-thirds (23-11-1) of New Orleans’ road division clashes all-time with QB Drew Brees under center. A 45.2 average final score is staying 3.1 points shy of a 48.4 total. The Saints post 24.5 points per game in this spot. Brees and crew travel to Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Saints Slowed Angle

Since 2008, NFL regular-season favorites failing to reach their projected team total last time out by more than two touchdowns have hit the under at a 63.5 percent rate (61-35-3). The Saints, heavy chalk at Tampa Sunday, came up 19.5 point shy of predictions in their 13-10 loss at Dallas last Thursday night. New Orleans went off a 7-point favorite with a 52 game total in defeat.

Jags-Titans No Points Redux

Since 2011, the under is 31-14-1 (68.9 percent) in division clashes with a total of 40 or less when the host team scored 24 points or fewer in the previous meeting. The two combine for 35.9 points per game. The Titans topped the Jaguars 9-6 in a defensive slugfest in Week 3. Oddsmakers opened the rematch in Nashville with a 38 over/under.

Talk Football on SBR's NFL Betting Forum

Cincy’s Potential Points Problem

Since 1989, double-digit road underdogs coming off a home loss, facing a team winning away from home while catching points in its previous effort, post just 15.3 points per game. This is the situation when the Bengals take on the Chargers in L.A. Sunday. Cincinnati is a 14-point underdog. The “under” is 20-12-1 (62.5 percent) subsequently.

Everything Burns

Modern NFL defenses make it a priority to limit big plays. The Seahawks, despite a 43-16 romp over the 49ers last Sunday, yielded the longest pass reception in the league: a 75-yard TD strike from Nick Mullens to Dante Pettis. You can bet they will not be burned by similar big gains against the Vikings Monday night. A play on the total might benefit. Since 2001, following Week 10 in the regular season, teams allowing a catch of more than 75 yards have cashed the ‘under’ next time out at a 64.7 percent rate (86-47-1). Opponents average 19.6 points per game.

Brady Blockage

The “under” has cashed in 10 of the last 11 AFC East matchups in which Patriots QB Tom Brady is laying a touchdown or more on the road. The high-powered New England offense cools for just 22.6 points per game. The Pats have failed to reach its projected team total in all but one. Oddsmakers opened New England 10-point chalk with a 48 total at the Dolphins Sunday.

Harbaugh Heroics

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has covered the spread two-thirds of the time (16-8-1) when catching points on the road against an opponent with a higher winning percentage. Baltimore is covering a 5.4 average line by 2.4 points per game. These are the conditions in Week 14 at the Chiefs.

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