Week 14 comes to a close tonight after the Cowboys and Bears hook up from Soldier Field. The NFL Odds for this game look like a wash at this point, however there are some very intriguing NFL Odds in the prop department this week. Follow along as I release my two prop picks for tonight’s game, both of which are from Bet365 sportsbook.
Tonight against the Bears, Jason Witten has a receiving yards total of only 53 ½, and even though he hasn’t performed well over the last few weeks, I think Witten will have resurgence tonight.
One reason why is because the Bears are still not very good at defending the tight end. They were really bad at it last season under the strict cover 2 defense of Lovie Smith, and even though they are only playing a variation of the cover 2 this season, things haven’t gotten much better under the new regime. The Bears are giving up the 3rd most yards to opposing tight ends this season, at over 75 yards per game. Witten could easily see a ton of targets in this game, because he may be the forgotten guy.
Dez Bryant will see double coverage all game, which can only help Witten tonight. On top of that, depending on the flow of the game, the Cowboys are going to try and run the ball as much as possible. Once the Bears clue in on this, Witten will likely have single coverage from a linebacker or safety all throughout the 2nd half. If you know or have watched the Bears this season, their safeties have been horrible, and their linebackers are young and inexperienced because of injuries. Witten could easily grab four or five balls tonight, meaning that the 'Over' could be a smart option for our NFL picks.
Although he hasn’t done much in the last two or three weeks, Witten has dominated bad tight end defenses this season. Against the Broncos and Vikings, two teams with bad tight end defenses, Witten went over 100 yards in both games. The Bears will likely be too preoccupied to give Witten the attention he deserves, and I think it bites them.
My Pick: Jason Witten ‘Over’ 53 ½ receiving yards (-125)
guy I have my eye on tonight is Matt Forte. Forte has a TD price tonight of
only -110, and even though there is some chalk, I think the value is great
tonight. All we have been hearing about Chicago this season is they can’t stop
the run. However even though the Bears lead the league in rushing yards
allowed, if you throw in total yards given up to opposing running backs, guess
which team has given up more than Chicago?
You guessed it; it’s the Cowboys. Dallas has given up nearly 2000 yards of total offense to running backs this season, and that is way more than Chicago or any other team. The Cowboys have also given up the third most TDs to opposing running backs this season, 10 on the ground and five through the air.
Although Forte’s rushing yards price is solid tonight, I think a TD prop is better value. Forte hasn’t been known as a TD guy so far through his career, however he already has 8 TDs this season, and five in the Bears’ last six games. Even though he has failed to score in the Bears’ last two games, I see that changing tonight against the overvalued Cowboys defense.
My Pick: Matt Forte TD Scored (-110)